Determined to undermine the Trump administration’s military bolstering of Taiwan and the Philippines, China is emphasizing its ability to compress Taiwan in the event of war and its belief that it can successfully do so even in a direct confrontation with the U.S. military.
Deployments close to Taiwan by the Chinese military are ratcheting up dramatically. In early April, the commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific testified to Congress that China’s “aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan are not just exercises — they are dress rehearsals for forced unification. [China] escalated military pressure against Taiwan by 300% in 2024.” Adm. Sam Paparo added that a Taiwan war would likely mean a “25% reduction in GDP in Asia, an effect of 10% to 12% GDP reduction in [the United States], [and U.S.] unemployment spiking at 7% to 10%” above current rates.
Beijing is infuriated by increasing political and military support for Taiwan by the Trump administration, and by President Lai Ching-te’s boosts to defense spending and assertions of Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty. But there has been even more aggressive Chinese posturing in recent days. It is likely that part of Beijing’s rationale here centers on the fact that out of the three U.S. carrier strike groups currently deployed, two are operating in the Middle East. Only one, the Nimitz, is operating west of the Philippines. China has previously bolstered its military activity when the U.S. Navy has been stretched out of the Pacific.
The point bears emphasizing that the Chinese navy of 2025 is nothing like that of 2005. Today, it encompasses a vast and rapidly growing fleet of highly capable warships that are supported by an array of highly capable space-based capabilities and long-range missile systems. Put simply, the Chinese military of today has a reasonable and growing prospect of defeating the U.S. military in a war over Taiwan. It’s in that context that China’s latest activities deserve close scrutiny.
First up, there’s the Shandong carrier group. Last week, it conducted two transits of the Luzon Strait separating the Philippines and Taiwan. My annotated Google Maps screenshot shows its very rough route via orange lines. The purple circle shows the Philippine island of Batan. As part of broader U.S.-Philippines military exercises, Batan last week hosted a Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System. The NMESIS allows for the mobile ground employment of the Naval Strike Missile, which is capable of striking naval targets up to ranges of 200 kilometers. Its deployment in Batan indicates the U.S.’s intent to harass Chinese warships attempting to encircle Taiwan and push past the Pacific Ocean’s First Island Chain during a war or blockade over Taiwan.
Still, the Shandong’s deployment illustrates Beijing’s effort to show Washington that it won’t be corralled by the U.S. military. And the Chinese aircraft carrier is far from the only show of force China has been making in recent days.
After all, consider the annotated map from the Japanese defense ministry. It shows the path of a Chinese electronic warfare aircraft in red that flew south of Okinawa and then operated over the Ryukyu Trench last week. It also shows a Chinese aerial drone in yellow that flew off Taiwan’s east coast on the same day. Two other Chinese drone flights transited off Okinawa’s south coast last week.
Taken together, we thus see a comprehensive Chinese effort, almost certainly directed by the Central Military Commission in Beijing, to increase pressure on Taiwan and signal resolution to the Trump administration in the practice of that pressure. China wants Trump to know that Taiwan remains the centerpiece of President Xi Jinping’s dream of 21st-century dominance and that Xi will not rest or be easily deterred in his pursuit.
WILL TRUMP LET PUTIN PLAY HIM WITH THREE DAY CEASEFIRE BLUFF?
In turn, if the Trump administration wants to better deter China from attacking Taiwan and dominating the South China Sea, it needs to put the U.S. military where its mouth is.
Spreading the U.S. military too thinly across the planet is an invitation to Chinese aggression and a recipe for defeat.