Former President Barack Obama rode into the White House in 2009 with historic potential, having won a landslide victory over a Republican legend and a Senate supermajority. But Obama squandered his opportunity to restore hope to a nation beset by cynicism after Iraq and the 2008 financial crisis by refusing to prosecute top executives of the financial firms responsible. His continuation and expansion of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, an implicit acknowledgement that some entities had indeed become “too big to fail,” eroded public trust even further.
Obama, a singularly gifted politician, maintained enough support among Democrats to score a few legislative achievements and win reelection by a slimmer margin. But his presidency was marred by populist revolts, the tea party on his right and the Occupy movement on his left, and he never fulfilled the “hope and change” promise that fueled his extraordinary political rise. It’s worth wondering how different it might have been if not for his administration’s original sin of bailing out the banks who’d brought the economy to the brink.
President Donald Trump, the primary beneficiary of Obama’s failure to restore faith in America’s core institutions, appears headed down a similar path. Elected decisively in 2024 to restore economic security and lower living costs for working-class people, Trump has prioritized seemingly everything else. 100 days into his second term, people are registering their dissatisfaction with sinking approval ratings. On economic issues, unfailingly the most important to voters, Trump’s declining support poses an existential threat to his agenda and legacy.
The original sin of both presidencies involved promises made during campaign season. Obama contradicted his promise of “hope and change” by perpetuating Washington business-as-usual. Trump, on the other hand, kept a promise he shouldn’t have made because it never made sense to begin with: lowering costs and reimagining global trade by enacting sweeping tariffs.
At an August 2024 rally in Bozeman, Montana, he said, “Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again.” And after his victory in November, he reiterated his intention to combat inflation, telling Meet the Press’s Kristen Welker, “I won on groceries… I won an election based on that. We’re going to bring those prices way down.”
But the tune changed quickly at the White House. Weeks into the administration, Vice President JD Vance warned the media that lowering costs would “take a bit of time.” After “Liberation Day,” which saw Trump raise the average U.S. tariff rate from 2.4% in 2024 to 22.8%, the president lamented that America would need to “take its medicine” before seeing cost relief.
To be sure, there was no talk of “taking medicine” on the campaign trail. Voters believed Trump’s original promise of a manufacturing renewal and short-term inflation reduction. And now they want what they were promised.
Of course, 100 days is still very early. There is still time for Trump to abandon his ill-conceived tariff plan and adopt economic policies that grow the economy, lower costs, and create jobs. It may not be the manufacturing renaissance Trump appears to sincerely believe tariffs will produce, but it could be enough to save his agenda and prevent an economic calamity that hands the government back to Democrats.
Indeed, no one should know better than Trump that all you need is a weak opponent to pull off an unthinkable upset. The idea of President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been widely mocked in conservative circles of late. But it’s a terrifyingly real possibility, one made more real by a president who has failed to fulfill his key campaign promise.
MAKE GOVERNMENT DATA GREAT AGAIN
A recent CBS News poll found that 69% of respondents believe Trump is not focusing enough on lowering prices, while 62% think he is too focused on tariffs. The populist president should listen to his people — and fast. If not, the original sin of this administration imperils the promise of his victory and legacy.
It’s not too late, but it’s getting late fast.