President Donald Trump is growing impatient with efforts to negotiate an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Reflecting on negotiations, he recently warned, “There’s a point at which you have to either put up or shut up.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio later backed up that stance by arguing that if a peace deal is “not going to happen, we need to know now because we have other things we have to deal with.”
This frustration is understandable. The Trump administration has expended heavy effort and not insignificant political capital trying to end a war that has run for more than three years and cost hundreds of thousands of lives and many billions of dollars. Trump deserves praise for that effort, but it is an effort that needs to be sustained, not sloughed off after a few weeks.
Were he to abandon peace efforts without applying serious pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, similar to that which he has applied to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump would only earn himself an ignominious chapter in the history books.
The contrast between Trump’s treatment of Zelensky and Putin has been striking.
Following a disastrous Feb. 28 Oval Office meeting, Trump suspended arms supplies and some intelligence sharing with Ukraine. He has repeatedly and falsely blamed Zelensky for starting the war, and for “gambling with World War III” by refusing to end it. In so doing, Trump has given political cover to the absolute aggressor and simultaneously encouraged Russia’s continued dangling of nuclear threats designed to extract American appeasement. Rather than staring Russia down as America did in the Cold War, with superior U.S. nuclear forces matched by moral authority, Trump has shown only timidity toward Putin.
This isn’t to say that he is wrong to be frustrated that peace negotiations are struggling. Nor is it to excuse Zelensky for his self-defeating arrogance. But Trump should reconsider why the prospects for peace are perishing. It is Putin who is to blame. Consider that on Thursday, it will be six weeks since Zelensky agreed to Trump’s proposal for a 30-day, trust-building ceasefire. In predictable contrast, Putin continues to prevaricate, and the ceasefire has not happened.
Putin, seeing his obstinacy rewarded, has done what any good KGB officer would do. He has kept playing for time, realizing that he does not risk serious consequences from the United States, so he might as well hold out and press for more Ukrainian sacrifices.
Trump is left with two unequal choices.
One would be the disgraceful and damaging path of giving up on peace and blaming both parties for failure. Taking that option would greatly undermine America’s moral authority as a defender of free peoples and of Trump’s own credibility as a leader who stands tall when the going gets tough. It would be a surefire way for Trump to match the ignominy of weakness that defined former President Joe Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal. Gazing over the Taiwan Strait, Chinese President Xi Jinping would surely find this encouraging.
The second option is for Trump to make real what has until now been only rhetorical pressure on Russia. The president should warn Putin that unless he accepts an unconditional 30-day ceasefire by the end of this week, he will impose secondary sanctions on Russia’s oil and coal importers in China, India, and Turkey. These would bite deeply into the fragile Chinese economy, and India and Turkey would probably seek alternative energy suppliers for fear of losing U.S. market access. The U.S. economy is nearly 14 times the size of Russia’s economy.
A severe threat of sanctions would serve peace in two key ways.
It would inject an immediate, potent economic toxin into Putin’s strategic calculus on Ukraine. Trump’s global tariffs have already depressed Russian oil export prices well below what Putin needs to pay his bills and support his war. Secondary sanctions would be to the Kremlin’s finances what the Russian Novichok nerve agent is to the human body. With the Russian economy struggling with high inflation, a serious shortage of skilled labor, and falling private investment, secondary sanctions would force Putin to choose between painful domestic spending cuts and scaling back his war machine. For understandable historical reasons, Russian leaders fear policies that risk popular discord. If Putin didn’t blink with secondary sanctions, Trump could fully sanction the Russian banking sector, starving it of critical access to foreign capital markets. Trump has an ace in his hand against Putin, but he has, so far, refused to play it.
Second, Trump’s sanction threat would show Ukraine and America’s allies, the vast majority of whom support Ukraine, that he is willing to match his temporary arms and intelligence blockade against Ukraine with pressure on Russia. That would greatly bolster perceptions of Trump as a fair-minded arbiter. It would earn greater support for his peace efforts from both Ukraine and the international community. It would also consolidate America’s standing with allies who are beginning to doubt that this nation remains the world’s leading force for human freedom.
TRUMP’S CHAOTIC EUROPEAN DEFENSE SPENDING MESSAGING
The intent of these new actions would not be to destroy the Russian economy but to encourage Putin to join Zelensky in a more sincere effort to agree to a durable peace. Perhaps it won’t work, but Trump should at least try.
History won’t record Trump’s deal-making genius if he gives up on peace simply because he lacks the courage to press the stronger party to end its aggression.