Two years after Gallup said that more Americans identified as Republicans than Democrats for the first time in over three decades, the trend has expanded as the GOP has won over more support from Hispanic and black voters.
The one-point edge Gallup discovered in January 2023 has grown to five points in a new Napolitan News survey of 9,300 registered voters.
In that survey shared with Secrets, 46% said that they considered themselves Republicans or leaned Republican, while 41% considered themselves Democrats or leaned Democrat.
In the Gallup survey of 10,000 adults, 45% identified as Republicans and 44% as Democrats.
Napolitan pollster Scott Rasmussen said that while the numbers appear to favor Republicans and even President Donald Trump, voters can be fickle and sometimes change their partisan identification.
“While it’s hard for people in the political world to accept, party ID is fluid. During a campaign season, people who think of themselves as independent tend to align with a party — or at least lean toward a party. That’s why the number of Republicans goes up with a Trump victory,” he said.
His latest survey offered some proof, showing that as recently as October, Democrats had the edge over Republicans, 46%-44%. But by election month in November, Republicans led 45%-43%.
The trend to the GOP appears real and partly due to its focus on working-class voters while Democrats embrace elites. Rasmussen said that change has helped the Republicans win over key minorities.
“There is a long-term shift underway. It’s often talked about as Republicans becoming the working-class party. While not entirely accurate, the shifting party coalitions are helping the GOP. The working class shift is helping R’s make preliminary inroads into the black community and strong gains among Hispanic voters,” he said.
And, he added, Trump is a positive for party growth, as is the liberal shift by Democrats.
“It’s hard for many voters to align with a party that backs extreme views,” said Rasmussen.
Still, despite trends seen in polls, the nation generally remains split, with neither party able to capitalize on its lead. Washington Examiner columnist Michael Barone declared America a 50-50 nation in 2000, and Rasmussen said that not much has changed since.
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“The biggest factor is that we’ve now had 10 straight presidential elections without a landslide since 1988. America has never had such a long stretch of close elections in our history. In the 20th century prior to 1988, landslides happened twice as often as close elections,” said the pollster.
Rasmussen added, “These close elections have come along with increased partisan polarization. So, over time, the parties have become pretty even. The reason, though, is because neither has been able to win a lasting governing coalition.”