Texas Democrats are eyeing what they believe is a more favorable 2026 Senate race matchup if state Attorney General Ken Paxton beats out incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the GOP primary.
While Cornyn has a consistent track record of reelection since taking office in 2002, a recent Texas Public Opinion poll showed Paxton winning a primary fight against him 38% to 27%. The MAGA-aligned Paxton has a history of legal trouble, while Cornyn has been accused of being too bipartisan.
“Nobody should beat around the bush here that in a general election, you’d want to run against Paxton,” Democratic operative Matt Angle told NOTUS. “He is a corrupt public official who has been extreme in terms of his partisanship and his failure to do things that are good for Texas.”
On the Democratic side, 2024 Senate candidate Colin Allred is “seriously considering” a run in 2026 after losing to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 53.1% to 44.6%. Cornyn responded to Allred by telling him to “come and take” his seat. Allred countered, “Good luck with your primary, John,” hinting he could have trouble making it to the general election.
The same poll that put Paxton ahead of Cornyn also measured Allred’s net favorability at plus 7.
Democratic strategists in the state have said Cornyn and Paxton present pros and cons in a general election matchup. Cornyn could appeal more to moderates but might not drive a high turnout. Paxton could energize the MAGA base but will likely repel swing voters, giving Democrats more firepower against him.
“I’d rather run against Paxton, for sure,” said Katherine Fischer, who worked on Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s campaign in 2018. “It’s not as obvious to voters that John Cornyn is bad. It’s more and more obvious with Ken Paxton.”
The Republican primary could come down to who President Donald Trump endorses. The Texas Republican Party agreed to maintain neutrality in the race. Paxton is lobbying MAGA to get him Trump’s endorsement, while Cornyn is utilizing his Senate connections to gain the president’s support.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), who Cornyn ran against in the chamber’s leadership battle, recently endorsed the Texas senator.
“I’m hoping that in the end, he can,” Thune said when asked about Trump supporting Cornyn. “Obviously, we’re supporting Sen. Cornyn. He’s done a great job for Texas and for the country. And we need him back.”
Cornyn said he believes Trump will make an endorsement “when he’s ready.”
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) could jump in the primary as well. He reportedly believes he’s the only one who could win the primary and general election.
“Now, he’s scrambling to rewrite history — hoping voters will forget he ever turned his back on the very movement that built our momentum and delivered the majority for Republicans, specifically the Senate,” Hunt told CNN about Cornyn.
“The United States Senate is not a retirement community. It’s a battleground for the soul of this nation,” he said. “And in times like these, President Trump doesn’t need fence sitters — he needs warriors.”
Trump’s endorsement would likely help Cornyn, Hunt, or Paxton in the primary. However, the president’s falling approval rating, linked to his tariff fight, could be a boon to them in the general election.
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“Donald Trump just announced the biggest middle-class tax hike in modern history — I wouldn’t want to be John Cornyn or Ken Paxton right now,” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Kendall Scudder said in a statement. “Whoever emerges from this Senate primary as the Texas GOP nominee is going to have a tough road ahead of them. Texans are going to hold them accountable every step of the way, and I look forward to leading that charge.”
Paxton has not announced his Senate run, despite hinting at it multiple times, but there is speculation he will finalize his campaign later this year.