Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has begun raising funds for his 2026 reelection campaign, a seat that will be a top target for Democrats to flip.
Tillis first won his seat in the Republican-friendly 2014 midterm election and was reelected in 2020. Tillis won both elections by slightly more than one point after trailing in the polls each time.
North Carolina is a right-leaning swing state. The state legislature and U.S. congressional delegation are both under Republican control. The state’s governor, lieutenant governor, and secretary of state are all Democrats.
Tillis is in an interesting situation, as he is more centrist than most of his fellow Republicans. He stands with President Donald Trump on most policies but breaks rank from the Republican core from time to time. In 2022, he supported the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified same-sex marriage into law. He was also one of 15 Republican senators to support a 2022 bill for increased red flag laws and background checks on firearm purchases.
More recently, Tillis drew anger from members of his party when he considered voting against some of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, such as Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When he decided to vote in favor of confirmation, he then drew anger from Democrats who thought he would stop Trump’s nominations.
Tillis will likely face former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in the general election. Cooper served two terms as governor from 2017-2025. The Cook Political Report currently has the seat listed as leaning Republican, while Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both list the race as a toss-up.
Tillis is not the perfect conservative candidate, but he has the best chance to win in a state like North Carolina. Even though he is more centrist than many of his Republican counterparts, he stands with Trump on most issues. Although Vice President JD Vance cast the tiebreaking vote to confirm Hegseth as Defense Secretary, his action would not have been possible without Tillis’ “yes” vote beforehand.
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As the incumbent, Tillis is likely to cruise through his primary and move to the general election next year.
With Republicans looking to hold the Senate in 2026, Tillis’ North Carolina represents a key seat to hold.