Georgia’s Senate election will likely pose the best chance for Republicans to pick up a seat in 2026.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is running for reelection in a state President Donald Trump won by two points in 2024. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and Reps. Buddy Carter (R-GA) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) are among possible Republican challengers to the seat.
Although Georgia voted for Trump, the state has two Democratic senators. Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) won their first elections to the Senate in 2021. Warnock won his election to a full term in 2022 in what was a decent but disappointing year for Republicans.
Although Georgia has become more of a toss-up state in recent years, there are encouraging signs for Republicans this time around.
The result of the election will likely depend on who runs for the Republicans. Kemp is a popular governor, but he is ineligible to run for reelection. He proved that he could win a statewide race when he defeated Stacey Abrams twice for the governorship, most recently by 7.5 points in 2022.
If he chooses not to retire, Kemp will likely have the best chance of beating Ossoff in 2026. He may not be as conservative as some Republicans want, but he may be the best choice if Trump’s midterm election environment is poor.
Carter and Greene are both candidates who have also expressed interest in running. They are more conservative than Kemp and will likely receive support from pro-Trump Republicans.
Their chances of winning the seat are more closely tied to Trump’s approval in the state than Kemp’s chances. After losing Georgia in 2020, Trump flipped the state back in 2024. If he maintains positive approval ratings going into 2026, it is reasonable to assume either Carter or Greene would have a solid chance of winning the seat. Some anti-Trump Republicans may be discouraged from voting for Carter or Greene, but it likely wouldn’t be enough to swing the vote unless Trump’s popularity takes a large downturn.
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Midterm elections are rarely good for the party in power, as the last three incumbent presidents have lost the House in their first midterm elections. That being said, the Senate is more friendly, on average, to the party in power. Former President Barack Obama, Trump in his first term, and former President Joe Biden all held the Senate the first time around. Trump and Biden even managed to add seats in the midterm elections.
It is still early, but for now, Georgia is the best chance for Republicans to make gains in the Senate for 2026, especially among seats with a Democratic incumbent.