Poor messaging and issue choices are driving younger voters out of the Democratic base and into the arms of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, where they could stay comfortably for decades.
In the latest analysis of the post-2024 election, the 18-29 youth vote is said to be growing more concerned about the economy and less about liberal side issues and is eager to support a party with an authentic and modern message.
And, according to the latest analysis from Harvard University’s pollster, Generation Z has a level of government distrust that the Democrats once represented but have ceded to the GOP.
“The economic anxiety gripping young Americans is real and profound. Their skepticism of institutions stems from lived experiences of systemic failures. Their media consumption habits favor authenticity and engagement over polish and qualification. And their cultural concerns, while often manipulated, can’t simply be dismissed as ignorance or prejudice,” said John Della Volpe in his latest post on his Substack “JDV on Gen Z.”
Della Volpe is the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics and the founder of the school’s influential Youth Poll. He is considered the nation’s expert on younger voters.
His latest post focused on Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-CA) new podcast and the liberal politician’s choice of conservative youth leader Charlie Kirk, founder of the Trump-backing Turning Point USA, as his first guest.
My exclusive poll reveals 49% of young Americans are optimistic about Trump’s 2nd term, but jobs, housing & affordability dominate their priorities.
Democrats must deliver solutions, not rhetoric.
Read more: https://t.co/W2v60XLaSp#GenZ #YouthVote pic.twitter.com/M1wXI3a2bq
— John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe) January 24, 2025
Della Volpe noted that while progressives hit the choice and Newsom didn’t push back on some of Kirk’s “exaggerations” about the youth vote, it was a smart choice because it was a recognition by at least one top Democrat that the party is losing its grip on younger voters.
“Governor Gavin Newsom’s podcast debut with Turning Point USA’s co-founder and CEO Charlie Kirk reveals an irrefutable truth: Conservatives are winning the youth messaging war. Though the LA Times called their exchange ‘full-on cringe,’ Kirk’s journey from ‘a card table and a debate me sign’ to political influence offers critical insights into Gen Z’s rightward shift. Despite growing backlash to Trump’s economic policies and falling approval ratings among young voters, the conservative approach to messaging continues to resonate in ways Democrats struggle to match,” he wrote.
Kirk is well known in Trump circles and often joins Donald Trump Jr. at youth and political conferences. The president is one of his biggest fans.
He has helped the GOP with its messaging to younger voters, how it messages to them, and what issues to focus on.
Della Volpe wrote that it is those issues that have led to a shift by younger voters to the GOP beyond the surprise 2024 vote that saw Trump win 46% of the 18-29 vote and Vice President Kamala Harris just 52%.
And without a change on the Left, it will continue, he wrote.
“The battle for Gen Z isn’t just about winning the next election — it’s about shaping America’s political future for decades to come. Kirk’s influence demonstrates that the party that best addresses young Americans’ anxieties about their economic and social prospects could well secure a generational advantage,” the pollster said.
Della Volpe said he believes the Democrats still have the right issues to attract younger voters, but Kirk told Secrets that Republicans now have them and they know how to message those issues.
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“We watched as our TikTok, Instagram, X, and YouTube videos did billions of views in the lead-up to the election, and the Democrats had zero to counter it. We talked directly to younger voters about anxieties around being able to own a home, having a family, and doing as well as their parents. We talked about the betrayal of the social compact our country makes with the next generation, and the promise of the American dream. We talked about cultural issues like race, abortion, and free speech. We engaged in authentic debates,” Kirk said.
He also told us that Della Volpe “is right that what we are doing is working, but he’s wrong that Democrats have policies that would address their concerns. Our messaging is better because our ideas are better. We’ve always believed that if we were given a fair shot to reach young people on an even playing field, our ideas would win the day. Once we weren’t censored, throttled, and shadow-banned on platforms like X, YouTube, or TikTok, we were proven right. Democrats need better ideas if they want to compete.”