President Donald Trump’s policy toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine is, at least for the moment, a moral and strategic debacle. Effectively excusing Russia of responsibility for its utterly unjustified invasion of Ukraine, Trump has centered U.S. pressure solely on Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky was arrogant and foolish not to read the room in his meeting with Trump last week. Yet, avoiding any new sanctions on Russia to motivate its more serious concessions toward peace, Trump has sent President Vladimir Putin an unmistakable message: you have control.
On Wednesday, Trump suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine that is crucial in helping it detect, intercept, and protect its people against Russian attacks. Russia promptly thanked Trump for his generosity by firing a missile into a hotel in Zelensky’s hometown. Four people were killed and more than a dozen wounded. This is what Putin does when he wants to send a message. He cannot help but show Ukraine and everyone else that he believes Trump has handed him the initiative.
The consequences of Trump’s Ukraine policy extend far deeper, however. Europe has done a generally pathetic job of supporting Ukraine and providing for its own defense. Still, even some of America’s most reliable allies are now questioning whether the United States can be trusted. That’s a problem.
Why, for example, would allies keep buying U.S. military equipment when Trump might obsess over a slight, perceived or real, and, as he has done in Ukraine, simply suspend the technical support needed to keep those weapons operating during war? Why would they risk diplomatic capital on other U.S. diplomatic or economic endeavors in the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere when Trump is so unpredictable? Why would they risk aggravating their increasingly anti-American populations when doing so might risk election defeat far more than it would any reward from Trump? Why would they join U.S. efforts to better counter China when China offers a devil-you-know transaction?
That China concern is paramount as the Trump administration rightly seeks to recenter U.S. security policy toward Beijing’s preeminent threat. Yet Chinese officials are surely rubbing their hands with glee at what Trump is now doing with Ukraine. After all, it means they can renew their sales pitch to Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
“You might not like us, our ideology, or what we do to our people,” the Chinese Communists will say, “but unlike America, at least we offer a predictable long-term relationship that offers clarity about what we offer and expect in return. We offer massive investment and trade in return for your foreign, security, and human rights policy deference to the Chinese Communist Party.” Even America’s closest allies have been tempted by this offer, only holding back from greater Chinese engagement in loyalty to their U.S. alliance.
It’s already working. On Thursday, the European Union removed restrictions on its parliamentarians meeting with Chinese government officials. This is a clear olive branch from the EU unmistakable in its timing alongside tensions with the U.S. over Ukraine. And who does Trump think that Canada will turn to for export offsets if U.S. tariffs continue to destroy its economy? Does he think growing Chinese influence over and access to our northern neighbor will be positive for U.S. security?
TRUMP SMASHES UKRAINE’S SHIELD AND SUMMONS RUSSIA’S SWORD
Put another way, Trump isn’t simply undermining America’s historic moral legitimacy as the world’s greatest force for human freedom against tyranny and aggression. He is doing so in a manner that Ukraine cannot accept and will be forced to reject. Trump is also playing right into the hands of America’s key enemy by kowtowing to the interests of America’s second-greatest adversary.
The president’s social media posts and American family bank accounts will be far less impressive when China controls every major global supply chain and economic relationship. In so, as a better writer once put it, “His jest will savor but of shallow wit when thousands weep more than did laugh at it.”