President-elect Donald Trump will have many agenda items to address when he returns to the Oval Office on Monday. One he should get to quickly, for there is no time to lose, is the future status of the U.S. military base at the island of Diego Garcia. Poor decisions in the United Kingdom, driven by ideological obsessions rather than strategic thinking by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, mean an important military base is in jeopardy.
Part of the Chagos Archipelago in the British Indian Ocean Territory, Diego Garcia has long served as a key logistics hub and airport for the U.S. military. It has facilitated many military actions, including bomber missions against the Taliban and al Qaida in the opening stages of the war in Afghanistan. The island’s location, as shown in the Google Maps screenshot below, offers great strategic value to America both for defense and offense.
The base is a difficult target for foreign attack, which is crucial, considering escalating tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan. In the event of war, China would use its vast missile arsenal to try to destroy U.S. airbases on Okinawa and Guam. Diego Garcia would be more difficult for China to reach. As a result, the base would be of immense value for heavy bomber attacks against Chinese forces and, if necessary, strategic targets on mainland China.
Unfortunately, with remarkable neglect of strategic foresight, Starmer’s government agreed last October to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, Diego Garcia included, to Mauritius. This seems to be nothing but a move to pander to the anticolonial Left of Starmer’s socialist party and its delusional obsession with British guilt over Britain’s imperial past. The agreement would allow Britain to retain military access to the islands for itself and the U.S. for an annual rent. But once Mauritius has sovereignty, it can nix the deal or otherwise restrict U.K. and U.S. operations more easily. Many Chagossians oppose Starmer’s new arrangement.
The deal would also give China a big incentive to lure Mauritius with lucrative investments so it agrees to undermine U.S. military interests on the island. China might also use its influence to establish spies on the islands around Diego Garcia. This is a big concern and should be prevented.
China secured interests in the Solomon Islands with bribery. New Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam previously had $3.9 million in cash seized by police from his home safe, so it is pretty clear that he is amenable to financial persuasion. Ramgoolam has previously fostered close relations with China and is attempting to renegotiate his country’s agreement with the U.K. on better terms.
Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio and national security adviser-designate Mike Waltz have strongly criticized Britain’s move. In response to pressure from the incoming Trump administration, Starmer has suspended talks on the agreement. He says he wants the new president’s input before making a final decision. This is welcome and, one hopes, betokens the U.K.’s recognition of its strategic interest, not just in the Indian Ocean but also with America.
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Trump should make it instantly clear that he opposes any transfer of sovereignty to Mauritius. To compensate for any complication to British interests in complying, he should be willing to increase payments to the U.K. to maintain full military access and use of Diego Garcia in the long term.
A few million dollars extra a year is a small price to pay for the retention of a base that might be crucial in helping America avoid defeat in a coming war with China. Starmer’s poorly conceived agreement requires U.S. demolition.