President-elect Donald Trump has an opportunity to forge a foreign policy that strengthens America’s security for the coming decade. To accomplish such a goal, it is not enough to boast about America’s past greatness or believe that dictators can be pacified to prevent wars. It will require a strategy based on four pillars: a stronger military, results-driven diplomacy, the empowerment of key allies, and curtailment of America’s main adversaries.
To deter war, America must be ready to fight a war. A stronger U.S. military means a fully staffed standing force equipped with the most modern weapons in all domains. U.S. military recruitment targets have been missed in the past few years, with the Army reporting a 20% shortfall in a force that is now smaller than on the eve of World War Two. The pool of National Guard troops and reserves has also been shrinking in all services. A national strategy is needed to stop the bleeding of manpower and restore a military that displays size and strength to adversaries that will otherwise be emboldened by America’s weakness.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has also exposed glaring inadequacies in the production of military equipment and ammunition necessary to prevail in war. In a major conflict, such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait, current stockpiles of munitions such as long-range, precision-guided shells would be rapidly depleted. And America’s defense industrial base currently lacks the capacity for increasing production during a major conflict. In stark contrast, China produces high-end weapons systems and equipment five times faster than the U.S. Greater investment in modern military technology is also necessary, including drones, electronic warfare, and robotics.
The second pillar of a strong foreign policy is diplomacy that brings concrete results. This means not surrendering territories of independent states to aggressor governments or pointless photo sessions that legitimize Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping without gain for America. Even the smaller dictators, such as Serbia’s Aleksandar Vućić in the Balkans, have to be reined in from seeking to dominate neighboring states. Otherwise, America’s weakness, even in the face of non-nuclear regional aggressors, will be on display and encourage other aspiring expansionists. If one is serious about “peace through strength,” then one must display strength and determination toward petty dictators and command the necessary military and economic tools to achieve compliance.
A third essential pillar of foreign policy is to empower key allies. Trump was correct to berate NATO states that did not fulfill their defense spending commitments, and he should continue to pressure allies, such as Spain, Germany, France, Italy, and Hungary, which barely meet NATO standards and are unprepared to defend their allies. By the same token, countries that far exceed defense spending guidelines and are on the front lines of a possible war, such as Poland and the three Baltic states, should be rewarded with sustained U.S. military support if they are threatened by a revanchist Russia. If U.S. troops are to be pulled out of Germany, they should be positioned in the most pro-American countries that are willing to spend and fight for the alliance.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The fourth key pillar that encapsulates the three elements of a successful Trump foreign policy is the curtailment of America’s main adversaries. Military strength, diplomatic success, and a strong alliance among states investing substantially in their own defense will act as a strong deterrent against aspiring imperialists. And in this equation, Trump’s famed unpredictability and ego can be an advantage in dealing with America’s chief adversaries.
Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen believes Trump’s combination of unpredictability and a desire to be a winner could make a strong formula for promoting a peace process in Ukraine. Trump could simply tell Putin to stop the war or face the consequences of more massive military supplies to Ukraine that would further decimate Russia’s military. But if Trump tries to force Kyiv into accepting a peace deal by cutting off weapons supplies, this will be globally viewed as a defeat for the U.S. and a sign of weakness in the face of international aggression. Washington would then be faced with new wars generated by China, North Korea, and Iran in the expectation that Trump would opt for peace at any price.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C., and author of Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture.