What makes a restoration of former President Donald Trump interesting, if not tantalizing, is the simple fact that Trump can’t seek reelection in 2028.
While some have suggested that he would be a lame duck upon taking the oath for a second, nonconsecutive term, that’s probably not true if he finds himself with Republicans in the majority in both houses of Congress. Not only would Senate confirmations be easier, but key pieces of legislation could pass before campaigning in the 2026 midterm elections begins in earnest next fall. As the 47th or 45th president (depending on how you count), Trump would have somewhere between six and eight months to implement his program.
The real questions are how he would govern and in what style.
There are four likely scenarios.
The first and most obvious is a continuation of Trump’s first term.
This would include a frequent turnover in appointees and staff, the unveiling of executive actions and other pronouncements in late-night or early morning posts on X or Truth Social, and chaotic press conferences, including with some of the journalists that used the briefing room to become minor celebrities.
The second scenario is a more disciplined second term akin to the tight ship that Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita have jointly run with Trump’s campaign.
Without a doubt, this was the best of his three campaigns. Not only was it professional and disciplined, but Wiles and LaCivita ensured relative stability. While Corey Lewandowski and other agents of chaos returned to court, they never came close to the corridors of power. It’s easy to see the Wiles-LaCavita model transitioning to officialdom at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
The third possibility is probably the worst case for the New Right and the MAGA movement.
Trump wins the Electoral College, but Democrats narrowly keep the Senate — perhaps Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) loses in Texas — or take back the majority in the House of Representatives. While this could make Trump the lamest of lame ducks, it could also result in him cutting endless deals with his old pal Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). With or without Democrats forming a Senate majority, Trump and the next Republican minority or majority leader will have to find votes from Democratic senators to achieve the 60-vote threshold.
The awkward Schumer-Trump relationship was on display at the recent Al Smith Dinner, where Trump and Schumer were talking it up before the program started. While the conversation stopped and the body language (especially Schumer’s) changed after the program started, Trump’s own remarks confirmed his willingness to work with Democrats. Trump has always wanted to cut deals, particularly on any issues involving his hometown of New York City. Glimpses of this were visible during his first term when Trump was prepared to cut deals with Schumer and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
In a Washington of continuing budget resolutions and Congress repeatedly kicking the can down the road on all sorts of big items, this scenario (what the French call cohabitation) could be extremely consequential.
Last but not certainly least is, at least politically, the most interesting scenario.
A reelected Trump could take a hands-off approach to daily governance, leaving J.D. Vance as vice president to act as a kind of prime minister or de facto head of government. This would allow Trump to focus on foreign affairs and international trips, clearing up pending legal matters, the ceremonial duties of head of state, and setting himself up for a post-presidential life, including a presidential library.
Such a scenario would also allow Vance to run as the incumbent president in 2028. The Republican National Committee might as well cancel the primaries and caucuses as there would be zero possibility of someone such as Govs. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), Brian Kemp (R-GA), or Ron DeSantis (R-FL) stopping Vance, the heir to Trump, from becoming the nominee.
Admittedly, there are numerous variables that could alter any of the scenarios or pull Trump and Washington in a completely different direction.
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Nevertheless, the unprecedented nature of a second, nonconsecutive term for a president in the modern era and since the enshrining of constitutional term limits means Trump has a rare opportunity to wipe the proverbial slate clean and get a second crack at defining his legacy.
The only question: What will Trump do?
Dennis Lennox is a public affairs consultant, political consultant, and past executive director of a Republican state party. Follow @dennislennox on X, formerly Twitter.