Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a close election to win Nevada‘s six Electoral College votes, but either politician could face protesters who opt to cast a “none of these candidates” vote.
Two of the big-name third-party candidates, Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., won’t appear on the ballot in the Silver State, meaning voters who don’t support Trump or Harris can vote for the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver, the Independent American Party’s Joel Skousen, or “none of these candidates.”
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Nevada is the only state that offers this option to voters who are put off by the major-party presidential candidates since it became a requirement in 1975.
But while Trump and Harris no longer have serious third-party threats, they’ll still have to deal with this odd function of the state.
Polling suggests it won’t be as big of a factor as the primary when Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley lost the nominating contest to “none of these candidates,” roughly 60% to 33%. Trump did not compete in the primary and instead opted to participate in Nevada’s GOP caucuses which he soundly won.
However, as polls tighten in the 2024 general election races, including the crucial Senate race, all votes count.
Republicans in the Silver State claim that it is Democrats who should be worried that they could lose protest votes, as Harris’s lead in the state has narrowed since she replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee.
“The issue of ‘none of the candidates’ is more of a concern to Democrats whose poor performance in the economy, failed Afghanistan withdrawal, and open border policies have turned Nevadans to back Republicans this election,” said state GOP chairman Michael J. McDonald in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
“Even after the Democrats have spent over $200 million trying to redefine Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground because his message is resonating with voters across the country,” added Brian Hughes, a Trump campaign senior advisor, in a statement.
Polling in Nevada shows a tight race with a polling average from RealClearPolitics showing Trump narrowly leading Harris 47.8% to 47.1%. The New York Times polling average shows the two candidates are tied at 48% each while FiveThirtyEight’s polling average also shows the two candidates tied at 47.3% each.
Democrats insist that the Harris campaign’s ground operations and public overtures to disaffected Republicans will help keep the state blue during next month’s election.
“We know that Nevada is a critical battleground state that will play a major role in deciding the next president and control of Congress, which is why we invested early in a ground game focused on both turning out Democrats and earning support from nonpartisans and moderate Republicans,” said state Democratic Party spokesman Nicholas Simoes Machado, in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
New polling from Providence in the state suggests that the “none of these candidates” option will likely garner a little over 1% of the vote next month, which adheres to historical standards. In 2020, “none of these candidates” won 14,079 votes or 1% of the vote, while in 2016, the year Trump first ran for president, “none of these candidates” won 28,863 votes or 2.56% of the vote.
The Providence poll conducted Oct. 22-23 showed Trump winning 50.6% of the vote, Harris at 46.8%, Oliver at 1.3%, Skousen at 0.2%, and “none of these candidates” at 1.3%.
Another recent poll from AARP showed Trump at 47% in Nevada, Harris at 46%, Oliver at 1%, and “none of these candidates” at 2%.
Woodrow Johnston, Republican strategist and co-director of Providence Polling, told the Washington Examiner he thinks Trump will win the Silver State becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to win since George W. Bush in 2004.
The polling “is pretty much in line with the national trends we’ve been seeing with the early voting trends we’ve been seeing,” Johnston said.
“Republicans typically do not outperform Democrats during early voting, and they are,” he continued. “Usually what ends up happening is Democrats win early voting, and Republicans have to make up for it on election day in Nevada. But that hasn’t that’s not what’s happening now.”
Early voting figures released this week show Republicans outpacing Democrats, according to Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar.
Jon Ralson, the venerated Nevada political expert, has warned Democrats that Republicans have a “5 percent turnout edge on the Dems.”
“There’s definitely more Republican enthusiasm than there has been this time,” said Steven Hilding, a Nevada GOP strategist. “So the Republican voters themselves are turning out. The question is always going to be the independents, I think you’re going to see more hospitality workers than usual, voting for the Republican ticket.”
First Trump and then Harris have embraced ending taxes on tips, which is bound to play in Nevada, a state where the restaurant and hospitality industries reign supreme.
The former president spent Thursday evening in Las Vegas, Nevada, with Turning Point Action’s Charlie Kirk and former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. The week before, the Harris campaign relied on former President Barack Obama to gin up support among Democrats in Las Vegas as well.
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But Republicans remain hopeful the state will flip red when the votes are tallied.
“I think that Republicans are looking better right now than they have in probably a couple of cycles,” Hilding added.