With little time to spare, former President Donald Trump has now caught up to Vice President Kamala Harris in a third national poll and is on a trajectory to move past her by Election Day.
The Emerson College Poll, released Saturday morning, showed both tied at 49%. It is the first time Trump has tied Harris since President Joe Biden was pushed out of his reelection race and endorsed his vice president.
It is the third national poll this week to show that Trump has put the race into a dead heat with 10 days left before Election Day.
On Friday, CNN’s poll had the race tied at 47%, and the New York Times/Siena survey had it tied at 48%.
Emerson said that independents are breaking for Trump in bigger numbers than the 2020 election, which Trump lost to Biden. “In this poll, independents report breaking for Trump 49% to 46% — a reversal from 2020, where they reported voting for Biden by about ten points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
And Trump is winning over men in huge numbers. “Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55% to 42%, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by ten points, 54% to 44%, underperforming Biden’s support in 2020,” Kimball added.
Trump spent three hours yesterday taping a podcast hosted by Joe Rogan, which political analysts said was a move to lock in the Republican’s “bro vote.”
Trump and his team have exuded confidence in the past two weeks as polls have shown him in the driver’s seat. Reports have emerged from the Harris campaign about infighting and panic over her squandering her momentum.
Emerson said that when asked who likely voters think will win, they picked Trump by a hair. “Regardless of whom they will vote for, 50% think Trump will win the election and 49% think Harris will win the election.”
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The outfit also indicated that there are few voters left who haven’t already made up their mind and even voted.
“When asked when they made up their mind for president, 80% have made up their mind over a month ago, 10% in the past month, 7% in the past week, and 4% have not made up their mind yet,” said Emerson.