The November election is expected to be a close race, and some states are warning that a projection on the winner could come days after Election Day, similar to what was seen in the 2020 election.
Because COVID-19 caused an influx of mail-in voting and the closeness of the races in swing states, election projectors, such as the Associated Press, were unable to call races as quickly as in previous elections. Here is when the outlet made its state projections four years ago.
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Roughly half of the contests, 26 states, were called at poll closing in 2020. At 7 p.m. EST on Nov. 3, former President Donald Trump was projected to win Kentucky, and President Joe Biden was projected to win Vermont.
At 7:30 p.m., West Virginia’s polls closed, and Trump was instantly projected as the winner. At the 8 p.m. poll closings, Trump was projected to win Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, while Biden was projected to win Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. Arkansas was projected for Trump at its poll closing at 8:30 p.m.
At the 9 p.m. poll closings, Trump was projected to win North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska (except the state’s 2nd Congressional District), and Louisiana, while Biden was projected to win New York and New Mexico.
At the 11 p.m. poll closings, Trump was projected to win Idaho, while Biden was projected to win California, Oregon, and Washington.
Other states called on election night included Virginia (Biden), South Carolina (Trump), Indiana (Trump), Colorado (Biden), Kansas (Trump), Missouri (Trump), New Hampshire (Biden), and Utah (Trump). Washington, D.C. was also called for Biden on election night. Hawaii was called for Biden at 12:06 a.m. Wednesday, shortly after the state’s polls closed.
In the early morning hours of Wednesday, several key states were called, with Biden’s victory in Minnesota and Trump’s victories in Ohio, Montana, Iowa, Florida, and Texas, all being called before 2 a.m. At 2:51 a.m. and 3:06 a.m., Biden was projected to win Arizona and Maine (except the state’s 2nd Congressional District).
Later that day, Trump was projected the winner in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and at 2:16 p.m., Biden was projected the winner in the battleground state of Wisconsin. At 5:58 p.m. Wednesday, just under 24 hours after the first polls closed nationally, Biden was projected the winner in Michigan.
From the Michigan call Wednesday evening through early Saturday, no states were projected in the presidential race by the outlet, and the presidential race itself was also not called. Calls were still outstanding in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and Alaska.
On Saturday, four days after Election Day, the outlet called Pennsylvania for Biden at 11:25 a.m. and called the election for the president at 11:26 a.m. Less than an hour later, Biden was projected the winner in Nevada.
The remaining states were called the next week, with Alaska being called for Trump on Wednesday, Nov. 11, and North Carolina being called for Trump on Friday, Nov. 13. The final state to be projected by the outlet, Georgia, was called for Biden on Nov. 19, 16 days after Election Day.
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In 2016, Trump was projected as the winner of the election by the outlet on Wednesday, Nov. 9, at 2:29 a.m. EST, hours after the first polls closed on Election Day (Nov. 8, 2016).
While fewer mail-in votes are expected in 2024 than in 2020, the winner of the presidential race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will still likely not be known on election night.