Virginia was a reliably red state from 1952 to 2004, but population booms near Washington, D.C., gave the state a competitive edge through the 1990s before it eventually went blue in 2008.
The Old Dominion State has voted blue since then, with President Joe Biden winning its 13 electoral votes by 10 points in 2020. Despite its likelihood to stay blue, the Washington Examiner’s swing-state project covers the local DMV area, taking into account what voters in our region are concerned about.
The Washington Examiner is following the key issues voters care about as they prepare to vote for the next president of the United States. The specific issues being tracked are Social Security, crime, abortion, the economy, and immigration.
The topics were chosen with the help of the Associated Press issues tracker. The Washington Examiner subsequently compared five of the key issues in Google Trends on a state-by-state basis, revealing which ones are most important to voters in swing contests.
Here, you can track how important these concerns are to Virginia voters on a rolling 30-day basis.
Social Security
Social Security concerns are up top for Virginians this election cycle. It’s been an issue on their minds for a while, as Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) has turned her seat in Congress into a platform to elevate Social Security concerns in the state.
In July, Spanberger posted a statement to her website saying that her office had received an influx of constituent complaints over the last two years regarding response times from the Social Security Administration. The statement detailed a letter she wrote to SSA Commissioner Martin O’Malley.
Spanberger mentioned issues such as getting responses from the SSA on initial disability decisions, reconsideration decisions, and hearing decisions. She added that her office saw cases of sudden stops of Social Security Disability Insurance payments despite those people having received SSDI benefits each month for years.
Spanberger also listed the national average wait time was between 229 and 361 days for an SSA initial disability decision, reconsideration decision, and hearing decision. The Virginia average however, is much steeper: 416 days.
There are 14 SSA offices throughout Virginia to serve its 8,630,000 residents, and approval ratings throughout the state are lower than the national average.
Crime
Crime in Virginia was the second-most important issue to voters, especially with crime increasing from 2021 to 2022. Homicides increased 10.5%, vehicle thefts jumped 21.9%, drug arrests grew 8.8%, and burglaries increased 3.8%, according to the Virginia State Police.
In Virginia, property crimes, such as burglaries, car theft, and larceny theft, occur at a rate of 1,696 per 100,000 residents a year, still 13% lower than the national average.
SafeHome reports that while crime rates are on the rise, the violent crime rate in Virginia is 234 per 100,000, making it the ninth-lowest in the nation and 39% lower than the national average.
Abortion
Abortion took third place for concerns in Virginia, a state where abortion is legal through the second trimester until 26 weeks and six days of pregnancy. The only exceptions for abortions after that point are to save the mother’s life or to save her mental health.
Virginia doesn’t require counseling prior to an abortion procedure and has no waiting period. The state does require that a minor receives permission from a parent, grandparent, or an adult sibling who lives with the patient and that they are notified within 24 hours of the procedure. Both of these requirements can be waived by a judge should the patient petition it.
Economy
Economic concerns came in fourth in Virginia, where the unemployment rate is consistently lower than the national average. In November 2023, the rate was 2.9%, ranking Virginia 14th in the nation for employment rates, according to the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis.
The GDP growth has been on the uptick, landing at 4.2%. Even so, it is still less than the national average. The GDP came in at $728.1 billion in goods and services last year.
In Virginia, the information industry had the highest growth rate of 24% followed by retail trade at 21%. Manufacturing grew 9.8%, and real estate saw 2.6% growth, but educational services dropped 5.8%.
Immigration
Immigration came in last as an issue to Virginia voters. The American Immigration Council reports that immigrants make up 12.6% of Virginia’s population and account for 16.2% of the state’s labor force. Of Virginia’s entrepreneurs and STEM workers, 23% are immigrants. The 86,100 immigrant businesses in the state saw $2.7 billion in business income in 2022.
In Virginia, immigrants are more likely than U.S.-born residents to have any kind of college degree, and there are 19,365 international students who contribute $702.4 million to the state’s economy.
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The most popular countries of origin for Virginia immigrants are India, El Salvador, Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea. With over 1 million immigrants in the state, their spending power was $42.4 billion, and they paid $16.2 billion in taxes in 2022.
Of the immigrants in Virginia, 57.9% are naturalized, 144,200 are eligible for naturalization, and 20.4% are undocumented.