With three weeks to go until Election Day, the newest polling is showing the race is in a dead heat.
Former President Donald Trump has been tightly trailing Vice President Kamala Harris since her ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket in July, though typically he was always within the margin of error. Now, NBC News polling released Oct. 13 reveals they are tied at 48% each, with a margin of error of 3.1 points. Four percent of respondents are undecided.
The findings are bad news for Harris, who was leading in the September poll with 49% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 44%. However, it follows the trend of surveys this week which have found the momentum she had through the summer trailing off.
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“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who conducted the NBC poll alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff, said.
Harris’s team has been vocal recently about their concerns over the gender gap between the candidates – she is very strong with women but has bled support among men. Harris surrogates, including former President Barack Obama, have called out black men specifically for “coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses” to not support the vice president.
Harris leads Trump by 14 points with women, while Trump leads Harris by 16 points with men. Both have launched recent media strategies to try to overcome this gap. While Harris went on the Call Her Daddy podcast, primarily listened to by women, she also appeared on the Late Show with Steven Colbert and cracked a cold one, which was seen as an attempt to appeal to male voters. She’s also deployed her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), to attend football games, speak to manufacturing workers, and even appear on a Twitch live stream for World of Warcraft.
Meanwhile, Trump has been doing the rounds on the male-dominated podcast circuit, including sitting down with comedian Theo Von, Logan Paul, and the Nelk Boys. Next week, however Trump will sit down with Fox News’s Harris Faulkner for a town hall with a fully female audience to discuss issues impacting women this election.
In the popularity contest, Trump and Harris are tied again with 43% positive ratings. This is worse news for Harris than Trump, since her popularity shot up after she became the nominee — it jumped from 32% positive in July 2024 to 48% in September. The decline in October is attributed to young and independent voters.
Trump’s positivity ratings, on the other hand, are the highest since he left office.
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On the issues, Harris outperformed Trump on abortion, with a 19-point majority of voters saying she would handle the issue better. She also held a 10-point majority on healthcare. Trump dominated on the issues of border security, the Middle East, and the cost of living. He held a majority of 25, 18, and 11 points, respectively, on these topics.
In some good news for Harris, more voters said she indicated change compared to Trump, 45% to 40%. Republicans have been tying her to all of President Joe Biden’s policies, and have been arguing she is running as an incumbent. Her own campaign strategy has had to walk the delicate line of separating herself from Biden and his policies, without disrespecting her role in his administration.