Kamala Harris‘s struggles to convince minority voters, particularly black and Latino men, to support her could cost the vice president the November election.
In the blue-wall battleground states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, Harris’s campaign depends on her driving up her vote margins in the predominantly black cities of Philadelphia and Detroit. In Arizona and Nevada, she needs to appeal to Latino voters, who have become increasingly important in the Sun Belt states. But at the moment, one month before Election Day, she is underperforming with both demographics.
“Regarding black voters, she is doing much better than Biden was [in] 2024 but not quite his 2020 numbers,” Marist Institute for Public Opinion director Lee Miringoff told the Washington Examiner. “Latinos are clearly a weak spot for her, hence the town hall.”
Ahead of Harris’s town hall Thursday in Nevada with Spanish-language television network Univision, for example, polls supervised by Miringoff underscore that Harris and former President Donald Trump are “even” among Latino voters, remarkable compared to previous elections.
Despite a wider margin of error in Latino polling because of their smaller sample sizes, 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won the demographic over Trump 66%-28% and President Joe Biden repeated her success four years later 65%-32%, according to Miringoff.
Some of the decrease in Democratic support among Latinos coincided with an increase in the party’s acceptance of socialism, namely its warm embrace of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
But Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray also attributed the development to Trump’s appeal to men more broadly.
“Harris — and Biden before he dropped out of the race — is not doing as well as prior Democratic candidates among men under age 50 in these groups,” Murray told the Washington Examiner. “They are more attracted to Trump’s ‘get tough’ persona this year than they were in 2020 or 2016.”
While Harris is appealing to Latinos through her town hall, Michigan Democrats are imploring her to do the same to black men in their state before it is too late.
Rev. Horace Sheffield, III., a black Michigan pastor and radio host, for one, encouraged Harris to bring together black men and ask them “what they need” her “to do,” not make empty promises.
“They probably needed to get started a little earlier,” Sheffield told the Washington Examiner. “If you want to reach some black men, Kamala Harris, call me up and let me put them in a room for you, small room, big room, large room. But you need to get in front of them and hear from them.”
The practical repercussions of Trump’s appeal to minority voters are that he is leading Harris in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, on average, by less than 1 percentage point, according to RealClearPolitics, though Harris is ahead in Nevada by the same margin. In comparison to this time four and eight years ago, Clinton and Biden had comfortable leads over Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, though the former secretary of state eventually lost them, and Biden was ahead in Nevada. Arizona was close throughout both elections.
Republican strategist Cesar Conda contended Trump’s appeal is not only because of the former president’s personality, but his policies.
“Under former President Trump, black, Hispanic, and Asian unemployment fell to record lows, real wages increased, and inflation was under control,” Conda told the Washington Examiner. “Under Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden, minorities have experienced stagnating real wages and higher costs for groceries, gasoline, and housing. Working class Americans, including minorities, have faced increased competition for scarce jobs from the explosion of illegals entering this country caused by Harris’s border policies.”
Conda cited Harris’s appearance this week on The View, in which she responded, “Not a thing that comes to mind” when asked for differences between herself and Biden.
“The bottom line is Kamala Harris is struggling with minority voters because she offers the same failed policies that produced record inflation and illegal immigration,” he said.
At the same time, Democrats are emphasizing Harris’s policies, such as her proposal for home builder tax credits and providing an up to $25,000 down payment for first-time homebuyers, with affordable housing an important issue in Nevada.
“Nevada’s Latino and union voters have the power to decide who wins the Silver State in November,” Democratic National Committee Hispanic media director Marco Frieri told reporters. “These blocs are vital communities that help keep Nevada’s economy moving forward every single day. As Vice President Kamala Harris makes her case to Latino voters today, we’re making sure they have all of the information they need to access the ballot box at IWillVote.com and cast an informed vote for Democrats up and down the ballot.”
Amid Harris’s work to appeal to minority voters, Trump has one major advantage: Trump does not have to win the respective demographics; he only has to undermine her support.
Regardless, to mitigate Democrats’s organizing and fundraising advantage, the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee have conducted traditional canvassing and phone banking, in addition to holding community events, from haircuts to Cafecito door launches and Spanish postcard writing nights.
Harris’s town hall is part of her new, more open media strategy that has created problems for her apart from her appearance on The View.
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Her 60 Minutes interview, for instance, raised questions concerning the registration of her personal firearm, a “Glock,” and why she considers Iran to be the country’s “greatest adversary” and not China.
Trump’s town hall was delayed until next week because Hurricane Milton was scheduled to make landfall during its original broadcast.