A nonpartisan election handicapper updated the rating for the Texas Senate race on Thursday, shifting the state toward Democrats after the Senate Democratic campaign arm announced a multimillion-dollar investment in the state last week.
The Cook Political Report is moving Texas into the “lean Republican” category from the “likely Republican” category, showing an increase in momentum for Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-TX) bid to unseat incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).
CPR Race Rating Change: #TXSen moves to Lean R.
Read @JessicaTaylor‘s latest analysis, including why we view Texas as a slightly more competitive race than Florida: https://t.co/kSMrAlo1Sr
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) October 1, 2024
In rationalizing the change in ratings, the group pointed to the congressman’s strong fundraising and his prior experience beating a Republican incumbent. The civil rights attorney and former NFL player beat Republican Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) in his race for the Dallas-area seat in 2018 after redistricting in 2020 made the district much more favorable to Democratic candidates.
The change also comes after Cruz has been forced to be on defense on abortion after the fall of Roe v. Wade along with images of the Texas senator after he took a trip to Cancun during a severe winter storm in 2021, which the Allred campaign has been using in their ads.
“Allred has mentioned Cancun in many of his ads, but they’re not the sole focus. Instead, Allred’s campaign has often used the incident as a contrast point,” Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report wrote. “When it comes to abortion, Texas now has one of the most stringent ‘heartbeat’ bans in the country.”
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Taylor also points to tighter polling, specifically looking at internal surveys from both sides. An average of recent polling shows Cruz is up by five, but operatives on either side believe the race is much closer.
“Private Democratic polling has Allred down but within the margin of error. Private Republican polling has it at a wider single digit margin,” Taylor said. “Sources in both parties tell us that Allred is outperforming Harris with Hispanic voters — those close to Cruz say it’s only very slight and believe it will dissipate — but Democrats say there’s room for Allred to grow with suburban women.”
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced Thursday it would include Texas in a “multimillion-dollar” push to fund television ads on behalf of Allred. Democrats had already been signaling they were considering expanding the field with these races.
In the Texas Senate race, Democrats have spent $49.4 million, with most of the funding coming from the Allred campaign. In comparison, Republicans have spent nearly $22.3 million, according to data from AdImpact. As of Tuesday, Republicans had $18.2 million booked in future reservations, with the majority coming from the Cruz campaign, compared with $5.8 million from Democrats. Since last Thursday, Democrats have reserved an additional $4 million in ads for future reservations.
Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), the chairman of the DSCC, praised Allred’s candidacy. The congressman has a rising profile within the House Democratic Caucus as a member of House Minority Whip Katherine Clark’s (D-MA) team. He also served as part of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) leadership team.
“Colin Allred is a great great candidate, and we’re seeing that people really like him. It’s amazing the response he gets from folks,” Peters said, speaking to reporters last Thursday. “He is running against such an unpopular incumbent in Texas, and actually, Ted Cruz’s numbers are worse now than when he ran last time.”
While the rating change is good news for the Allred campaign, Democrats still face an uphill battle in unseating Cruz. The last time the Texas senator was up for election in 2018, he won the seat within 2.6 percentage points against former Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
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Senate Democrats hold a 51-seat advantage but are projected to lose their slim majority with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), and with recent polling showing Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) lagging in Montana, Republicans stand a good chance of flipping control of the upper chamber in November.
The Washington Examiner reached out to Cruz’s campaign for comment.