The top House Republican super PAC is dropping millions in cash reserved for keeping the party’s majority in the chamber.
The Congressional Leadership Fund is purchasing $18.5 million in ads across House battlegrounds in New York and California, along with attack ads against Blue Dog Democratic Reps. Mary Peltola (D-AK) and Jared Golden (D-ME), among other buys.
A chunk of the money, around $6.1 million, is going toward Los Angeles and New York City in hopes of reaching voters in their respective state districts. The larger of the two buys, New York City, aims to retain three GOP battleground seats, held by Reps. Mike Lawler (R-NY), Marc Molinaro (R-NY), Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), and to snag a seat away from Democrats held by Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY).
D’Esposito, who represents a D+5 district, according to Cook Political Report, might have the toughest challenge to come. A New York Times article that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) labeled a “partisan hit piece” laid out an intricate story about how D’Esposito allegedly employed his fiancé’s daughter and his mistress.
New York is critical to Democratic control of the House. While Democrats in the state sputtered in 2022 with Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) on the ticket, the governor and state Democrats have renewed their efforts there for 2024.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has noted in public comments that Democrats will prioritize the state for House control.
In California, the money will be used to defend Reps. Mike Garcia (R-CA), Michelle Steel (R-CA), and Ken Calvert (R-CA), as well as trying to grab an open seat vacated by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA).
Polling in battleground California districts has been Democratic-leaning, with only Republican Scott Baugh, who is running for Porter’s seat, holding a lead.
“If the Democrats control the House in 2024, it’s probably because four or five of these districts flip,” Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, told Politico. “It truly is so close that everything on the margins can make a difference.”
Grose mentioned that increased Democratic enthusiasm over Republicans could make a difference in those close California districts, especially if voters turn out for Vice President Kamala Harris.
At least $1.1 million of the money is going toward a GOP Senate effort in former Rep. Mike Rogers’s battle against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in Michigan. Other parts of the buy are going toward Republicans in Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and Virginia.
Even with the buy, the House GOP is behind the House Democrats’ main PAC in spending by about $40 million, with a $175 million to $215 million in ads reserved margin.
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Republicans are favored to win the Senate, but the House has been a bigger question mark for them. Betting site Polymarket gives Democrats a 63% chance of taking back the House.
Harris has played a large part in renewed Democratic fundraising, which has assisted Democrats in their fight for control of both congressional chambers. She recently raised $47 million after her debate with former President Donald Trump.