The presidential battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains virtually tied after the candidates faced off onstage during their first debate.
But even in a close contest, there are some signs that Harris received the bigger boost poll-wise after a new poll from the New York Times-Philadelphia Inquirer-Siena College showed Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania, the critical battleground state.
Several national polls, including the New York Times poll, either have the head-to-head matchup between the two candidates as either tied or with Harris again leading Trump but only by a few percentage points.
The Philadelphia debate on Sept. 10 may be the only time Harris and Trump face off this election cycle after Trump announced he was finished with these types of events. Since then, he was the target of an apparent second assassination attempt at his golf club in Florida.
With early voting beginning in a handful of states this week, the Washington Examiner reranked the battleground states according to which would be the hardest for the vice president to win.
WHO HAS AND HASN’T ENDORSED HARRIS AND TRUMP THIS ELECTION CYCLE
1. Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania was ranked the first the hardest battleground state for Harris to win the last time the scorecard was published, just after the Labor Day uptick in campaigning.
And despite the recent polls showing Harris leading in the Keystone State, it remains the hardest state given the unpredictability of the election cycle and the dreaded “October Surprise.”
The New York Times poll this week showed Harris leading Trump 50% to 46% in the state despite the two candidates tied nationally at 47%.
A recent Quinnipiac poll this week also showed Harris leading Trump 51% to 45%, with the Green Party’s Jill Stein pulling 1%.
But as previously mentioned, the race in the state is close with the Washington Post’s poll showing Harris and Trump virtually tied, 48% to 47% respectively, within the margin of error.
2. Georgia
The Peach State has risen two spaces in the ranking since the last scorecard was published, as polls have shown Trump is holding his lead against Harris.
A RealClearPolitics poll average in Georgia shows Trump leading Harris 48% to 46.3% while a recent Emerson College Polling-Hill survey showed with a 3-point lead over the vice president, 50% to 47%. This was a 2-point decrease for Harris since the last time the joint survey was conducted late last month.
Harris campaigned in Atlanta on Friday highlighting the consequences of “Trump abortion bans” are having on women, particularly one Georgia woman, Amber Nicole Thurman, who died after restrictive legislation was passed. Doctors, fearing retaliation under the law, did not provide medical care in time to save her life after she suffered complications from abortion pills she received in North Carolina.
“One in three women in America lives in a state with a Trump abortion ban. This includes Georgia, and every state in the south, except Virginia,” she told a crowd full of mostly women supporters before reflecting on Thurman’s death.
3. Arizona
In several Arizona polls, Trump has consistently led Harris, even though Democrats believe she could perform better in the sunbelt states than President Joe Biden could have if he had remained the Democratic nominee.
RealClearPolitics‘s poll average shows Trump leading 48.4% to 46.8% in Arizona.
The Emerson College poll showed Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris, 49% to 48% but Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement that the results in the state show “Trump lost a point, and Harris gained a point.”
4. North Carolina
The Tar Heel State used to be one of the hardest states for Harris to win given the fact that the last time it voted for a Democratic president was in 2008 during former President Barack Obama’s first run for the White House.
But Thursday’s eye-popping report from CNN detailing North Carolina Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s allegedly lewd comments on pornographic websites before entering office could scramble the race. Adding salt to Robinson’s wounds, Politico also reported an email address linked to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website that enables married people to cheat on their spouses. Robinson has dismissed the allegations as “tabloid trash.”
Trump endorsed Robinson’s gubernatorial race and has repeatedly championed the controversial politician, which Democrats are seeking to highlight among voters in the state.
Harris’s campaign is out with a new ad on Friday linking Trump to Robinson while the Democratic National Committee launched several billboard ads in North Carolina cities featuring a smiling photo of Trump with the lieutenant governor.
“I think you’re better than Martin Luther King,” Trump is heard saying about Robinson during the ad. “I’ve been with him a lot. I’ve gotten to know him, and he’s outstanding.”
It’s too early to tell how Robinson’s woes will impact the presidential race, but Trump was leading Harris by just 0.1% in the RealClearPolitics average.
5. Nevada
Polling in Nevada has not changed drastically since the last time the scorecard was published making the second time the Washington Examiner has ranked it the fifth-hardest state for Harris to win.
She still maintains a slight lead over Trump in Nevada by just 0.2%, according to RealClearPolitics. Both Trump and Harris are tied at 48% according to the Emerson College poll.
Last week, the Harris campaign announced a $3 million Spanish-language ad buy targeting Hispanic Americans, which could help her win the Silver State’s sizable Latino population.
On Friday, the Supreme Court handed the Green Party’s Stein a blow and Democrats a win when it refused to reinstall her on Nevada’s ballot. Former third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had previously been removed from the state’s ballot.
6. Wisconsin
Of the three “blue wall” states that Harris needs to win to secure the White House — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — the latter two have been Harris’s most likely states for her to win.
But since the last scoreboard, Harris has increased her lead in Michigan compared to Wisconsin, hence the swap in rankings. The last time around, Wisconsin was ranked seventh; now it’s sixth due to the stronger lead the vice president has maintained in Michigan.
Harris leads Trump by just 1 point, 48% to 47%, with Stein garnering 1% support in the state, according to Emerson College. RealClearPolitics shows Harris leading Trump 49.3% to 48.1%.
Despite the lead, Harris is still taking time in her schedule to appear in the state with a Friday night appearance in Madison.
7. Michigan
In Michigan, Harris has her biggest average lead over Trump at 1.7% among the seven battleground states, according to RealClearPolitics.
According to Quinnipiac, Harris bests Trump by 5 points, 50% to 45% in Michigan, while in Wisconsin, she leads by just 1 point, 48% to 47%.
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But just because Harris is leading doesn’t mean she is abandoning the state. On Thursday, Harris appeared with former talk show host Oprah Winfrey to host a star-studded virtual campaign event.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) appeared in person at the event as did Thurman’s family members, while stars such as Jennifer Lopez, Meryl Streep, and Julia Roberts appeared via video.