Larry Sabato‘s Crystal Ball announced it is shifting the North Carolina gubernatorial race from “lean D” to “likely D” after a controversial report was released concerning Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee.
Sabato, the founder of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said he called “an emergency session” to change the race’s rating.
“The Crystal Ball team has just met in emergency session, and in the fastest rating change in our history, we are moving NC GOVERNOR from Lean D to LIKELY D,” Sabato said in a post on X.
The report released on Robinson details comments he allegedly made in a pornographic web forum between 2008 and 2012. He is accused of saying he wished to own slaves, expressing his enjoyment of transgender pornography, and calling Martin Luther King Jr. a “commie,” among other things.
Robinson denied the details of the report, calling it “salacious tabloid trash,” and vowed to stay in the gubernatorial race.
The North Carolina gubernatorial race has Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein building a lead over Robinson. The presidential race in the Tar Heel State is far different, as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat. Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, though by very thin margins.
Sabato speculated before the report was released that it could bring down Trump and Robinson in North Carolina.
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“Our Crystal Ball rating for NC Governor has been Lean D. Mark Robinson (R) was going to lose even before this new story,” he said. “The question is whether Robinson brings down the top of the ticket (Donald Trump) with him. Those 16 electoral votes could be the whole election.”
Before the report, Decision Desk HQ’s polling average showed Robinson trailing Stein by about 11 points. Stein’s lead will likely expand with the report.