Five competitive House seats are shifting slightly in the final weeks of the 2024 election, with three shifting toward Democrats and two toward Republicans as the GOP works to widen its razor-thin majority in the lower chamber next Congress.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed ratings on Thursday for seats held by Reps. Mary Peltola (D-AK), Michelle Steel (R-CA), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), and the open race left vacant by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA). Peltola’s and Lawler’s seats moved further into GOP hands, while Steel’s, Van Orden’s, and Porter’s seats are shifting into Democratic territory.
House Republicans hold a four-seat majority, with the party looking to expand with wins in November. Peltola is one of several vulnerable Democrats whom Republicans have targeted, while Democrats have members like Lawler and Steel in their sights due to their districts voting for Joe Biden in 2020.
Peltola’s race went from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up,” significant for the red state after the congresswoman became the first Democrat to hold the at-large seat in 50 years. She faces Republican Nick Begich, as well as Democratic candidate Eric Hafner and Alaskan Independence Party challenger John Wayne Howe, in the ranked choice general election.
This is the second time that the system will be used, the first yielding Peltola’s victory in 2022, and Republicans are consolidating around Begich this year in a way they didn’t in the midterm elections. Begich recently gained endorsements from Alaska’s Republican Party, national Republicans, and former President Donald Trump after the party’s preferred candidate, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, dropped out of the race. Still, Peltola received over 50% in the open primary, so it will likely still be a hurdle for Begich to come out on top.
Lawler’s seat, which voted for Biden by 10 points in 2020, shifted from “toss-up” to “leans Republican.” The shift comes after Trump visited New York on Wednesday for a campaign rally to help shore up support for the House seats that were part of the GOP’s “red wave” in the state in the 2022 midterm elections. Trump also recently reversed his stance on the SALT cap as a method to try and flip New York red.
Steel’s race is another Biden-won district, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifting her race from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.” Though the strong Vietnamese voting bloc leans conservative, Steel’s challenger, Derek Tran, is a Vietnamese American — a fact that Democrats argue could sway voters to turn the district blue. However, the race is growing tighter as Tran faces scrutiny from Steel’s campaign over his former clients when he was a trial lawyer, per Politico.
In Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, the rating for Van Orden’s seat changed from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.” The race is getting increasingly competitive after the House Majority PAC released a poll finding the incumbent’s Democratic challenger, Rebecca Cooke, leading Van Orden 49% to 47%. A poll in July found him trailing Cooke by 1 percentage point. However, the 3rd District is a +5 Trump district, so it is an uphill battle for Cooke to achieve victory.
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Porter left her seat in California’s 47th District to run for Senate, losing to Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) as he looks to fill the seat held by the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Now Porter’s seat is vacant, with Democratic state Sen. Dave Min facing Republican Scott Baugh in November. Baugh is no stranger to a national race after he lost to Porter in 2022. The district is one Biden carried by 11 points in 2020, so Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”
Control of the House is projected to come down to seats in California and New York. Sabato’s Crystal Ball continues to view the House race as a “50-50” proposition.