Senate Democrats pledge to stick by Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) until the very end, even against increasingly long odds he can repel Republican Tim Sheehy.
The path to the Senate majority likely runs through Big Sky Country. But a dour outlook on the race in Trump-dominated Montana raises questions about whether Democrats should shift crucial resources to fend off GOP rivals in a slate of other expensive battleground contests or even try to flip long-shot Republican seats in Florida, Texas, and Nebraska.
With less than seven weeks until Election Day, that notion appears out of the question for Democrats.
“There is no world that I will do that,” Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), chairman of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, told the Washington Examiner.
He quickly furthered his oath to state there was “no universe” in which he’d pull back.
Democrats and pro-Tester allies have $43.5 million in future Senate ad reservations teed up through Election Day, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. The figure for Republicans buoying Sheehy is just shy of $43 million.
A trio of nonpartisan election forecasters shifted the race’s outlook from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” in the wake of troubling polls for Tester. He won a third term in 2018 against Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), who was then the state auditor, by about 3.5% points.
But the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee chairman has never shared the ballot with former President Donald Trump, who captured Montana in 2020 by north of 16 points against President Joe Biden.
In the latest unwelcomed news for Democrats, the Montana Supreme Court this week denied an effort by the state’s Democratic Party to remove Green Party Senate candidate Robert Barb from the ballot. Democrats sought to boot Barb, who could siphon key votes from already razor-thin margins, over allegations he was ineligible because he was “appointed” rather than “nominated” to replace the former Green Party candidate who won the primary but then dropped out.
Since a virtual tie between Tester and Sheehy in early June, the Republican has since come out on top in six of seven public polls, with most leads outside the margins of error. Tester trails by an average of 4.4% points.
“Haven’t seen it. Our polling certainly doesn’t show that,” Tester told the Washington Examiner. “We are in exactly the position I thought we would be in, and we’re going to win. And I don’t say that lightly. You can take that to the bank.”
Peters also downplayed the accuracy of public-facing polls in such a red state. He went so far as to say he “would not trust any of those polls.”
“What we’re seeing is not unexpected. We knew this would be very tight. Jon Tester is doing extremely well in a very tough state,” Peters said. “People are getting called by pollsters several times a day, and after you’ve been called several times a day, you just tell people whatever you tell people when you don’t want them to call you.”
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Democrats must defend Montana and another half-dozen highly competitive Senate races to emerge with a 50-50 split chamber. A victory by Vice President Kamala Harris would allow Democrats to maintain the majority.
But a win by Republicans in any of the battleground seats held by Democrats or a victory by former President Donald Trump would almost certainly flip the Senate back to the GOP.