How far will Macron go to be China’s voice at G-7 summit?
Tom Rogan
Video Embed
When G-7 leaders gather in Hiroshima, Japan, this week, let’s watch to see how far French President Emmanuel Macron goes to keep China happy.
Beijing is unhappy about this summit, after all. Xi Jinping’s government knows that the United States and Japan seek to use the summit to align nations more closely against China’s coercion and pursuit of high-tech goods.
SUPREME COURT COULD WADE INTO DEBT CEILING FIGHT
This is a particularly important concern for Japan, which has watched with alarm as China increases naval patrols around its main islands. Beijing’s worries are also growing regarding China’s threats to Taiwan and its escalating aggression in the South China Sea. To that end, Japan has invited a number of non-G-7 member states to this summit. Their number includes Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, and Indonesia, all of which worry about China’s evolving military posture. Vietnam, for example, again found itself facing aggressive maneuvers by Chinese vessels near its coast last week.
For Macron, however, the priority won’t be supporting the G-7 and European Union in “de-risking” their engagement with China. Rather, he’ll want to balance saying just enough to keep his G-7 allies happy with retaining Beijing’s favor.
Macron’s recent visit to China made clear that his policy toward Beijing now exists through the absolutely dominant prism of trade. But Macron is no fool. He knows that Beijing places great value on his ability to restrain more hawkish EU-G-7 policies toward China. He also knows that China places a premium on his public support for its interests. Macron will thus be nervous about this summit releasing communiques or actions that might upset his patron in Beijing.
In turn, we should expect to see Macron blocking more explicit G-7 communiques on matters like Taiwan. I suspect we’ll also see Macron making comments during the summit that emphasize the need to cooperate with China and avoid escalation over sensitive matters. This will be read-between-the-lines messaging to Xi that he has his back.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Indeed, Macron is already laying the groundwork for his Hiroshima narrative. The Elysee Palace claimed on Monday that this is “not an anti-Chinese G-7 [summit]” but rather one that will offer a “positive message” in favor of mutually beneficial “cooperation.” To be clear, this is not what Macron’s Japanese hosts seek for this summit. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has made clear via his defense spending plans and statements that he wants greater international unity in resisting China-related threats.
The question, then, is whether Macron’s other G-7 partners will call him out if he starts undermining the summit by firing off cooing statements to Beijing.