Four Senate races identified by Mitch McConnell that could give GOP control in 2024
Emily Jacobs
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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, are working to recruit the most electable candidates in must-win swing states to retake the majority next year.
Democrats currently control the Senate by a 51-49 margin, a slim majority threatened by a tough 2024 map that includes four swing or red state incumbents up for reelection. This means that Republicans only need to net two seats to win back the Senate. Daines and McConnell have their eye on four 2024 races that could hand them the majority: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. In all four, incumbent Democrats face uphill their climbs to hold onto their seats.
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McConnell has refused to express confidence that Republicans are certain to win back the Senate, saying in a CNN interview last week, “I just spent 10 minutes explaining to you how we could screw this up, and we’re working very hard to not let that happen. Let’s put it that way.”
In Montana, Daines faces an uncomfortable situation while trying to oust his fellow Montanan, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). The two men, who have long had a frosty relationship, are in an awkward position as Daines searches for potential GOP challengers for his same-state colleague.
Of those challengers, Daines and McConnell are close to recruiting Tim Sheehy, a decorated military veteran and businessman, to join the race. Tester’s decision to run for a fourth term was a major win for Democrats, giving the party a fighting chance in a state Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020.
Asked last month by Politico if Daines took the NRSC job specifically to defeat him, the Democratic senator replied sarcastically, “That’s your perspective. And I don’t necessarily think that perspective is wrong.”
Daines’s search for candidates in other states is a far less awkward endeavor for him personally.
Republican candidates have begun entering the race to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in what is expected to be the highest-profile fight of his career. He’ll be running as an unapologetic progressive in an increasingly red state, though he’ll benefit from the power of incumbency, strong name recognition, and high approval ratings. Still, Daines and McConnell are jumping at the chance to oust Brown, and have spoken to a number of prospective GOP candidates about the race.
Among the leading declared and prospective candidates are State Sen. Matt Dolan, who came in a close third in the 2022 GOP Senate primary; Bernie Moreno, an Ohio-based businessman with ties to former President Donald Trump; Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), a member of the House Freedom Caucus with the backing of the Club for Growth; and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
Sen. Bob Casey’s (D-PA) decision to seek a fourth term in 2024 gave Senate Democrats another battleground state incumbent to rely on, though his win is no guarantee. Casey, the son of former Gov. Bob Casey Sr. (D-PA) and the longest-serving Democratic senator in Pennsylvania history, enters his latest race as the slight favorite. Like Tester, his candidacy is boosted by the power of incumbency and strong name recognition.
Daines has reportedly encouraged David McCormick, who ran in the 2022 GOP Senate primary for the vacant seat eventually won by Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), to run again in 2024. McCormick, the former Bridgewater chief executive, narrowly lost the 2022 primary to Republican celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz, who advanced to the general election as a bruised candidate. He has not decided whether to throw his hat in the ring for the 2024 contest, though he is not the only GOP name mulling a run.
State Sen. Doug Mastriano, Pennsylvania’s 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee who lost that contest by nearly 15%, has also considered entering the race. Daines has rejected the idea of Mastriano as the 2024 Senate nominee, recognizing that Casey will be a formidable candidate even if the election cycle turns into a difficult one for Democrats. He said of Mastriano in March: “We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election. His last race demonstrated he can’t win a general.”
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Daines and McConnell also persuaded West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a Democrat-turned-Republican, to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) next year. Justice is the only Republican in the ruby-red state who polls competitively against Manchin, a longtime friend-turned-political foe. Manchin, a former governor himself, had endorsed Justice in his crowded 2016 gubernatorial primary race when the latter announced his party switch.
Manchin, a centrist Democrat representing the heavily Republican state, has yet to decide if he’ll run for another term next year.