If Republicans want to take back the Senate, Kari Lake isn’t the answer
Tom Joyce
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Will Kari Lake run for Senate? Opinions among Republican operatives are mixed, but her senior adviser, Colton Duncan, recently said that he is “99 percent sure” she will run to represent Arizona next year. Regardless of what Lake wants, however, she should not run. Doing so would hurt her own political party.
The Republican Party could win back control of the Senate next year. The Democratic caucus controls 51 seats, while Republicans have 49. Assuming the Senate composition stays the same from now until Election Day in 2024, the GOP will need a net gain of at least one or two seats to control the Senate, depending on whether or not the party wins the presidential election.
ORAL ARGUMENTS SET FOR FRIDAY IN KARI LAKE’S LAST ELECTION CHALLENGE
The party’s best chances to pick up seats will occur in West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, Arizona, and Nevada, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
If Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who is now an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, seeks reelection, Republicans could have even more of an opening in Arizona. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), a progressive, is also running for Senate, which could split the liberal and moderate vote. Therefore, the GOP should run a strong, electable candidate in Arizona.
Lake lost an open-seat gubernatorial race by 0.7% last year. While she appealed to the Republican Party’s conservative base, she was closely associated with former President Donald Trump, who lost Arizona in the 2020 presidential election.
Lake tried to copy Trump’s style, which made her alienate voters in the traditionally Republican-turned-swing state. She called Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) a “loser” and peddled lies about the 2020 presidential election being stolen from Trump. She also questioned the results of her own election, particularly in Maricopa County.
And unlike Trump, she spread anti-vaccine misinformation during the coronavirus pandemic. She falsely claimed that vaccinating children against coronavirus is dangerous. While some political talking heads exaggerated the vaccine’s efficacy, the vaccine saved lives, particularly among those in higher-risk groups.
The biggest lesson that the Republican Party can learn from the 2022 midterm election is that candidate quality matters. Bad candidates with no political experience, such as Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, all underperformed and lost potentially winnable Senate races because voters found them off-putting for various reasons. Running someone who lies about elections and vaccines and bashes a war hero in a swing state is just bad politics, whether or not you agree with Lake.
If Republicans want to win back the Senate, they should run strong candidates who can win their respective states. Arizona GOP voters gave Lake a shot last year — they should not let her fool them again.
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Tom Joyce (@TomJoyceSports) is a political reporter for the New Boston Post in Massachusetts.