Democrats eyeing Senate bids open GOP pickup opportunities in House
Cami Mondeaux
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As the 2024 campaign cycle gets underway, a handful of House Democrats have jumped into Senate races, leaving open a number of seats that could provide pickup opportunities for Republicans as they seek to hold on to their slim majority in the lower chamber.
All 435 House seats are up for grabs in the 2024 cycle as Republicans seek to maintain their four-seat majority. At least seven House Democrats have announced they won’t run for reelection in 2024 and will instead vie for the Senate, leaving some critical swing seats up for grabs.
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Of those seven, at least two seats are expected to be some of the most competitive races in the 2024 cycle: those currently held by Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Katie Porter (D-CA).
Porter was one of the first House Democrats to announce she would not run for another term, launching a bid to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) after she retires in 2024. The open seat in California’s 47th District is considered to be one of the most competitive races and has been listed as one of Republicans’ top targets in the 2024 cycle.
A slew of other California Democrats are leaving their House seats to run for the Senate, including Reps. Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee. However, both their seats are not considered to be competitive and will likely remain in Democratic control.
Slotkin announced earlier this year she would forgo reelection and instead run to replace Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), who is retiring at the end of this term. Slotkin’s absence leaves Michigan’s 7th District up for grabs, which is considered to be a toss-up, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, giving Republicans a rare opportunity to flip a seat in a crucial battleground state.
”These retirements in crucial swing seats continue to supercharge the prospects of Republicans growing our House majority,” Will Reinert, national press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, told the Washington Examiner.
Republicans are also turning their eyes to Maryland after Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) announced on Monday he would not seek reelection, setting the stage for what is likely to become a competitive Democratic primary. Two candidates have already announced, including Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando and Rep. David Trone (D-MD).
Trone’s candidacy leaves his seat in Maryland’s 6th District up for grabs and is expected to be one of the competitive races in 2024, according to the Cook Political Report. As a result, it could give Republicans an opportunity to flip a seat in an otherwise blue state, and GOP officials say they see the race as a key pickup opportunity.
“As more and more House Democrats forgo running for re-election, the path to growing the Republican majority becomes increasingly clear,” NRCC spokeswoman Delanie Bomar said in a statement. “Democrats like David Trone are racing for the exits out of this extreme House minority.”
Cardin’s retirement may also attract Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) to join the fray, which would leave a second House seat open in the Old Line State.
Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) also announced this week he would not be running for reelection in the House, instead launching a bid against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Allred’s absence leaves his seat in the 32nd Congressional District open for the first time since 2018 when he defeated Republican incumbent Pete Sessions.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) will also step down from the House as he challenges Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) for her seat in the Senate, opening up a seat in a crucial battleground state.
A handful of GOP House members are also stepping down to run for Senate, including Reps. Jim Banks (R-IN) and Alex Mooney (R-WV). Neither race is considered to be competitive.
Although Republicans have a chance to seize on open seats to widen their majority in the House, Democrats have expressed confidence they can still win the House — noting it’s not uncommon for incumbents to vacate their seats and seek higher office.
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Democratic officials pointed to the 2022 campaign in which Democrats were able to hold on to the seven open seats that were vacated by House members, such as Reps. Emilia Sykes (D-OH) and Chris Deluzio (D-PA). The lawmakers replaced former Reps. Tim Ryan (D-OH) and Conor Lamb (D-PA), respectively, who each ran unsuccessfully for the Senate.
“House Democrats won competitive, open seats in 2022, and we will do so again in 2024,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Tommy Garcia told the Washington Examiner. “As House Republicans continue to show voters they are driven by extremism and grievances, we’re confident that with the right resources, the Democratic nominee will continue to represent these communities in Congress.”