Republicans worry Trump boycott could diminish GOP debates
Ryan King
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Candidates for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination may not get their opportunity to go toe-to-toe with the front-runner, fueling concerns about diminishing the importance of televised primary debates.
Former President Donald Trump has publicly soured on attending the debates, drawing taunts from his rivals and cheers from his backers. His absence risks backfiring against him but is likely to draw fewer eyeballs to the key event and could be a drag on the party.
TRUMP HINTS HE MAY SKIP GOP DEBATES: ‘NOBODY GOT MY APPROVAL’
“It’s definitely more damaging for the RNC in their legitimacy,” veteran Republican strategist John Thomas told the Washington Examiner. “One of their main jobs is to remain relevant in the primary process. And what Trump is doing here is stripping the party of one of their main roles of relevancy, which is being in charge of debates.”
Late last month, Trump fired off a warning shot, pondering why he, who is “leading by seemingly insurmountable numbers,” should subject himself to “being libeled and abused.”
“Obviously, this would be a blow to the RNC and to the rest of the Republican establishment,” Terry Holt, a Republican strategist and founder of Holt Communication Strategies, said. “I think there’s quite a bit more risk for Donald Trump to actually participate in the debates,” referring to the opportunities rivals would have to go after him.
A litany of potential hopefuls, such as Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) and former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), have hinted at plans to target him aggressively.
“I’m sorry to see that Donald Trump feels like if he gets on the stage, he’s at risk of losing his lead. If, in fact, his ideas are so great, if his leadership is so outstanding, then his lead will only increase if he gets on the stage, not decrease. But obviously, he’s afraid. He’s afraid to get on the stage against people who are serious,” Christie said in a radio hit Wednesday.
Given the historic opportunity of debates for primary candidates, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel planned to use admittance to them as leverage to compel candidates to commit to backing the eventual nominee.
This request drew some grumblings from hopefuls such as former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), who are uneasy about backing Trump. The former president himself has also been noncommittal. McDaniel has shrugged off those concerns and downplayed the specter of Trump skipping the debates.
“That’s his choice. And every candidate is going to make that calculation,” McDaniel said over the weekend. “What I think the American people want to see is these candidates; they want to see what they’re articulating, and especially what is your plan to take us out of the misery of Joe Biden.”
In private discussions, Trump has warmed up to the prospect of skipping one or both of the two planned debates, five sources told the New York Times, expressing concerns about elevating his lower-tier rivals.
“It is sort of a classic conundrum for the candidate that is way ahead. Who benefits most from the leading candidate’s participation?” Ed Rogers, a political consultant, said. “I think Trump supporters will accept at face value he’s not debating because it would only help his opponents. And there is no chance of Trump being shamed into debating.”
Many Trump allies contend that skipping the debate would spare Trump from being ganged up upon by the candidates and elevating his rivals, who are losing anyways.
“No reason for President Trump to debate in the nominating process. Nixon and Reagan did not debate opponents in the primaries in 1972 and 1984. President Trump has nothing to gain and a lot to [lose] elevating candidates who are at 4% or less while letting hostile media attack him,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) tweeted.
https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1651288538577502219?s=20
Moreover, the likely Democratic challenger, President Joe Biden doesn’t appear to have to do debates. As a former president, Trump may feel that he deserves the same courtesy, according to Thomas.
But the move also risks portraying Trump as a frightened giant, too scared of facing scrutiny.
“I’m not gonna let him get away with that,” entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy chided over the weekend about Trump skipping. “I think that if you want to be like Joe Biden, an existing establishment that doesn’t want to debate, I think people are hungry for new blood.”
Additionally, boycotting the debates gives Trump less time in the limelight. Trump relished in bulldozing through his 2016 foes with his shoot-from-the-hip style.
“Every time Trump would participate in a debate (except the one where he had Covid), his poll ratings would go up and despite all the pundits saying that he lost, the voters would give him the victory. I think Trump boycotting a debate is a lost opportunity for him,” Republican strategist John Feehery told the Washington Examiner.
A major sticking point for Trump appears to be Fox News, which is set to host the first debate set for Milwaukee in August. Trump supporters have grown agitated with the network lately. During the 2016 election cycle, Trump did too and skipped a Fox News debate just before the Iowa Caucuses.
He went on to lose Iowa in the primary and returned to the next debates.
“It’s a different ball of wax at this point,” Thomas said. “Trump has all the money he needs to run the air wars to be in front of those voters with plenty of time. Plus, he’s a universally known commodity.”
This time around, Trump is now a former president, and his lead over the GOP pack appears to have grown in recent weeks, buoyed by the backlash against his indictment and fumbles by his top rival Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). On average, his standing has jumped between 5 to 10 percentage points, depending on the poll, since late March.
With Trump out of the picture, all eyes will likely turn to DeSantis, who has polled consistently in second place among the hypothetical 2024 field.
“We don’t know how DeSantis does at these events. Does he rise to the occasion?” Thomas, who backed the Florida governor, said. “The risk DeSantis always had, debates or not, was that other candidates were going to dogpile DeSantis, hoping to be number two and then get Trump later on. This might accelerate that trend.”
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As Trump considers bucking the GOP party apparatus, the RNC appears to be doing his bidding for the general election debates. Recently, Republicans met with bureau chiefs of the five major television networks to gauge whether they would be receptive to hosting a debate sponsored by someone other than the Commission on Presidential Debates, the Washington Post reported.
Trump had pulled out of his second scheduled debate with President Joe Biden in the 2020 election cycle, and the RNC has feuded with CPD over its handling of those events ever since.