Four House seats Democrats could lose following state Supreme Court gerrymandering decision
Eden Villalovas
Video Embed
North Carolina Republicans’ 2024 path has been cleared following the state Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn a past ruling that disallowed partisan gerrymandering, paving the way for the Republicans to create a map that more heavily favors their party.
On April 28, the Republican-majority court effectively reversed a 2022 decision from the then-Democratic-controlled court that declared the Republican-drawn political districts as partisan gerrymanders, declaring states have no authority to counter districts drawn by the legislature.
NORTH CAROLINA SUPREME COURT OVERTURNS RULING THAT DISALLOWED PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING
Moore v. Harper, formerly known as Harper v. Hall, was brought by a group of North Carolina lawmakers who wanted to challenge the state’s legislative map that was drawn to benefit Republican candidates. This ruling could have significant implications for North Carolina’s current 7-7 House delegation, setting them up in 2024 to pass a new map and potentially removing four Democratic seats, which would give the GOP an 11-3 majority.
Here is a breakdown of the four Democratic seats at risk for elimination:
The 1st District
The current representative controlling North Carolina’s rural northeastern seat is Democrat Donald Davis, who beat Republican Sandy Smith in a 52.3% to 47.7% majority in the 2022 election. Davis succeeded Democrat G.K. Butterfield, the former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, who held the seat in the 1st District for nearly two decades.
In 2021, Republicans tried to flip the district by carving out certain areas like Greenville, which would shift its margins from Biden +9 to Biden +2. However, the GOP’s attempts were unsuccessful, only shifting the district by two points to Biden +7.
Republicans are now most likely to pursue similar restricting efforts as they could draw up a new map at any time.
The 6th District
The 6th district, located in the northern part of North Carolina, is currently occupied by Kathy Manning, the policy co-chair of the Democratic women’s caucus and member of the pro-abortion rights caucus. Manning defeated Republican candidate Christian Castelli by 9%.
In 2021, Republicans attempted to redraw their district to favor the GOP. They specifically wanted to give Republican lawmakers the following areas: a majority of Greensboro to Rep. Virginia Foxx, all of Winston-Salem to Rep. Patrick McHenrry, and all of High Point to Rep. Richard Hudson. However, the court decided to keep the district mostly the same, allowing Manning to hold the seat.
The GOP may now again seek to create new Republican seats in the southwest while eliminating Manning, if Castelli decides to run again. Former GOP Rep. Mark Walker, who served North Carolina’s 6th district from 2015 to 2020, who decided to not seek reelection after the district turned blue, is another possible candidate.
The 13th District
In 2022, Democrat Wiley Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines, in a 51.6% to 48.4% majority, effectively flipping the seat to blue for the first time since 2010. Prior to Nickel’s victory, the seat was held by Republican Ted Budd, who sought to run for U.S. Senate in North Carolina as opposed to running for reelection.
The 2021 GOP plan was to connect Raleigh exurbs, which include Johnston and Harnett counties, to Fayetteville, effectively making the seat red.
Hines has filed paperwork to run again, potentially setting up for a rematch against Nickel, according to The Hill.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The 14th District
The southwestern district, which was one of seven new House districts created by the 2020 census, is currently occupied by Democratic state Sen. Jeff Jackson. Jackson beat his Republican opponent Pat Harrigan in 2022.
House Republican Speaker Tim Moore could be a potential front-runner for the GOP, according to The News & Observer. Redistricting plans from 2021 attempted to expand into Charlotte suburbs from areas of Cleveland County, where Moore’s home base lies.
Democrats are on the defensive in 2024, as they seek to regain the House and hold on to their slim majority in the Senate.