Biden’s weak primary polls could be blood in the water for a serious Democrat

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President Joe Biden meets with South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, April 26, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) Evan Vucci/AP

Biden’s weak primary polls could be blood in the water for a serious Democrat

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President Joe Biden’s vulnerabilities are becoming evident in polling for the Democratic presidential primary. The real question is whether any prominent Democrat will dare to take advantage and make a run for the White House.

Democratic presidential primary polling over the past week shows Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with a toehold in the race. Kennedy came in at 19% in a poll sponsored by Fox News and 21% in a poll from Emerson College, with Biden at 62% and 70%, respectively. Earlier this month, Marianne Williamson also registered a double-digit polling performance, pulling 10% in an Echelon Insights poll.

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Since 1973, no incumbent president has won reelection after facing a primary challenger pulling double-digits, and yet that is where Biden sits. The problem could be even more grave for Biden because he may not even get out of a primary.

Just 47% of Democrats want Biden to run for another term, an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll reports. That is actually an increase in his support among Democrats from January, when just 37% wanted him to run again. This comes despite Democratic voters giving him a 78% approval rating. Democrats like Biden and the job he has done, but they are not eager to see him run for president in his 80s.

If marginal figures such as Williamson and Kennedy can both draw double digits in the polls, it shows a real appetite for Democrats wanting to move on from Biden. Williamson is not a serious candidate, and Kennedy, while benefiting from his famous name, is an unhinged conspiracy theorist. Neither of them has a real chance to become the nominee, but their polling numbers could serve as chum in the water for some serious contender willing to step on a lot of Democratic toes.

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The Republican nominee could help this process, regardless of who it is. Ambitious Democrats could see former President Donald Trump running away with the primary and decide that he would be an easy opponent. They could also see Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) surge ahead and realize that Biden would look ancient running against someone 36 years younger. Why wouldn’t a Democrat (say, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has been running a shadow campaign) take that leap?

Perhaps Democrats are going to begin circling the wagons, now that Biden has announced his reelection campaign. But there is no denying that they are not enthused by his candidacy. The longer Kennedy and Williamson hang around and show what level of support even a weak Biden alternative can draw, the weaker Biden will appear to more serious potential Democratic contenders. An already-shaky Biden faces some long months ahead, struggling to keep the party in line.

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