Xi hints at leveraging North Korea to pressure US
Tom Rogan
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The recent betrayal by French President Emmanuel Macron notwithstanding, the United States is working to align allies to constrain China’s threats against Taiwan and in resistance to its intellectual property theft and trade malfeasance. Infuriated by these efforts, Beijing is looking for ways to increase pressure on the U.S.
Chinese President Xi Jinping strongly hinted at one such way with a letter he sent to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last week. According to North Korean state media, Xi observed that “international and regional situations are now changing seriously and in a complicated way.” Xi pledged in turn to “encourage the [two nations’] bilateral friendship and cooperation to steadily develop.”
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Recent weeks have seen Kim conduct a range of ballistic missile tests, including of the intercontinental type that Kim might prospectively use to strike the U.S. homeland. The letter was pointedly silent on this topic. Although Xi would be highly unlikely to criticize Kim directly, the affectionate praise in this letter is telling. It suggests Beijing’s comfort, indeed its satisfaction, with Kim’s brinkmanship toward South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.
Xi’s stance isn’t terribly surprising.
As I suggested last October, Xi might view North Korea’s missile program as a double-sided carrot and stick with which to extract concessions. The Chinese leader is already hinting at a similar strategy with Russia. Xi feasibly wants the U.S. to beg for China to use its great influence on Kim to prevent his new missile tests and agree to new safeguards on his nuclear program. In return, Xi would want reciprocity via, for example, reduced U.S. support for Taiwan and fewer U.S. efforts to constrain high-tech Chip exports to China.
If this is the game Xi is playing, the U.S. shouldn’t be a party to it. Washington’s better response is to show up Xi’s antics to the world, especially to European leaders who might be tempted by Macron’s absurd notion that Xi ultimately seeks global cooperation. That argument isn’t terribly compelling when Xi’s North Korean patron is threatening nuclear war every other week. The U.S. should maintain pressure on Kim while making clear that it seeks a durable diplomatic resolution to Kim’s nuclear program.
But Washington must not dance to Beijing’s North Korean waltz.