Here are two key states where DeSantis leads Biden but Trump trails him
David Freddoso
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If Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is to have any chance of defeating former President Donald Trump in next year’s Republican primaries, he is going to have to establish that he can beat President Joe Biden and Trump cannot.
DeSantis has already tested stronger against Biden in some statewide and national polling, but this weekend’s news produced two additional data points from two of the most important states in the 2024 race. Surveys by Public Opinion Strategies find DeSantis ahead of the incumbent president in Pennsylvania and Arizona, whereas Trump trails Biden in both states.
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In Pennsylvania, DeSantis leads Biden, 45% to 42%. Trump trails Biden, 42% to 46%.
In Arizona, DeSantis leads Biden, 48% to 42%. Trump trails Biden, 44% to 45%.
When you look at the numbers in a Biden-DeSantis matchup, Biden looks like an incumbent dead man walking. He’s well below 45% and trailing a named challenger who hasn’t even entered the race yet. In contrast, when you look at the numbers in a Biden-Trump rematch, you are reminded of how much voters dislike Trump — at the mere mention of his name, Biden’s support increases.
With regard to voter antipathy toward Trump, these two surveys show the former president’s unfavorable rating is 56% in Pennsylvania and 58% in Arizona. Moreover, 56% of Pennsylvania voters and 55% of Arizona voters say they are not likely to vote for Trump in a general election.
Finally, here’s the most disturbing result in the poll, although perhaps also the least reliable (the full data have not been made available yet). If I read the McClatchy report correctly, it appears that when Arizona voters were asked first about a hypothetical Biden-DeSantis contest and then asked about the generic congressional race, they were significantly more likely to say they supported Republican candidates down ballot for Congress. But in interviews in which a Trump-Biden matchup was tested before the generic congressional ballot question was asked, there was a 10-point swing toward Democrats — from a nine-point Republican lead to a one-point Democratic lead.
Again, the mention of Trump’s name makes people want to vote Democratic. None of this bodes well for a third Trump run at the presidency or what it could do to the Republican Party and conservatism. The best thing Republicans can do for Trump is thank him for a successful presidency and move on.