Breaking with Macron, Germany’s Annalena Baerbock brings European courage to China
Tom Rogan
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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is visiting China from Thursday until Saturday. But unlike French President Emmanuel Macron, Baerbock recognizes that Europe’s relationship with China must extend beyond simple trade mercantilism.
Baerbock’s pretrip statement was striking in its contrast with the appeasement offered by Macron during his visit to China last week. The foreign minister pledged to “underline the common European conviction that a unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and especially military escalation, would be unacceptable.”
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Note, here, the words “common European conviction.” This is a not-so-subtle rejoinder to Macron’s declaration that France won’t even threaten China with consequences over its prospective invasion of the island democracy. That concern bears note because Chinese President Xi Jinping told his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Macron knows this, but he also knows Xi will reward him for betraying the United States and Taiwan.
Similarly rebutting China’s propaganda claim that it opposes “bloc vs. bloc confrontation,” a message Macron has also endorsed, Baerbock added that China is a “global player that increasingly wants to shape the world order according to its own designs.” And she noted, “The role that China plays with its influence vis‑a‑vis Russia will have consequences for the whole of Europe and for our relationship with China.”
There are two takeaways here.
First, Baerbock recognizes China’s ambitions are not simply those of a power that wishes to grow in economic and political influence with the world but rather to replace the U.S.-led, post-1945 international democratic order with its own order of feudal mercantilism.
Second, Baerbock is telling Beijing it can’t keep expecting to have its European trade cake if it fails to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine. Xi has taken advantage of European weakness and Macron’s appeasement by refusing to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. By expressing her frustration in this regard, Baerbock is at least hinting that she might call into question China’s lucrative trade arrangements with the European Union unless Xi takes greater action. Whereas the EU has vast prospective influence here, it has thus far failed to use it. But Baerbock’s perspective has allies, especially in the EU parliament.
China senses the danger of Baerbock’s leadership taking precedence over Macron’s appeasement.
In an editorial on Thursday, Beijing’s Global Times propaganda outlet issued a vague but pointed warning that Baerbock’s approach is undesirable. It observed that “German economic relations still have the potential for deepening development, and the momentum should be valued, not wasted.” Translation: If you put pressure on us, your privileged access to our markets might suffer.
Baerbock should call that bluff. China is the party with more to lose from a break with the EU.
Again, however, Baerbock deserves credit. In stark contrast to the German chancellor, she recognizes that far more is at stake with China than short-term trade deals. Baerbock understands that unless the democratic world is willing to exert pressure on China on exigent matters of security, human rights, and basic democratic values, those concerns will gradually be crushed under Beijing’s expanding boot. Along with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Baerbock deserves America’s respect for this.
More than that, the foreign minister offers hope that the next Republican president might actually have reliable allied partners in Europe to work with.