Biden’s Ireland trip comes with complications below the surface
Tom Rogan
President Joe Biden is traveling to Ireland this week to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement. He will arrive in Northern Ireland on Tuesday before traveling to the Republic of Ireland on Wednesday. He will then return to the U.S. on Friday.
It’s a trip worth making.
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The April 1998 Good Friday agreement led to a major reduction in violence between Irish Republican separatist movements in Northern Ireland, particularly the Irish Republican Army terrorist group and the British government. From the 1960s to 1998, the so-called “Troubles” saw a few thousand people die amid sectarian terrorism and civil strife.
While Northern Ireland today remains part of the United Kingdom, its residents are divided between those who wish the territory to unify with the Republic of Ireland and those who wish to remain as part of the UK. But peace generally endures. The agreement also facilitated power-sharing structures which allowed Northern Ireland’s people to address both their aspirations and grievances through democratic structures.
That said, this visit comes with its complexities.
First, the Northern Irish Parliament at Stormont is not in operation. This political crisis flows from a dispute between the Republican independence movement, Sinn Fein, and pro-UK Unionist parties over power-sharing agreements. It has fostered increasing tension over the territory’s political future. This Good Friday agreement anniversary thus comes at a difficult moment.
Then there are the security considerations.
In late March, UK authorities raised the terrorist alert level for Northern Ireland to “Severe,” meaning that analysts believe an attack is highly likely. This follows the attempted assassination, in February, of a senior Northern Ireland police officer by the New IRA terrorist group. UK officials believe that the New IRA or other Republican terrorist groups will attempt attacks against government authorities this week. Because of the traditionally close affection between Irish republican movements and the Irish-American community and Biden’s apparent sympathies for Irish republicanism, these threats are unlikely to focus on the president.
Still, while they are now generally committed to organized crime enterprises versus terrorism, armed unionist groups may pose threats to Biden. The U.S. Secret Service’s primary concern will rest on the advanced public notice the visit has attracted (which the Service fears can provide space for planning of attacks by groups or fixated individuals), the access to firearms and explosives retained by various groups in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and the controversy attached to the anniversary.
Hence why the security arrangements for Biden’s visit are very significant, even by the normal standards of presidential travel. Irish media has reported, for example, that the Secret Service and authorities in the Republic of Ireland argued over whether armed Secret Service agents would be allowed into the Irish Republic’s parliamentary chamber during Biden’s address to it. Apparently, armed agents will have to stand outside, though unarmed agents will almost certainly be inside the chamber.
Top line: Biden is right to make this trip, but the complexities attached to it are more significant than is obvious at first glance.