Republican-only 2024 caucuses in Iowa reflect its deepening red hue
David Mark
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On freezing nights leading up to Iowa’s crucial first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, the Des Moines Marriott Downtown’s bar usually brims with journalists, campaign operatives, political tourists, and assorted others. In 2024, the crowd may be lighter.
Democrats have nixed Iowa from the premier spot on the party’s nominating calendar after a half-century of dominance. Instead, the 2024 Democratic presidential calendar will have South Carolina in the plum first position on Feb. 3, New Hampshire and Nevada jointly sharing the No. 2 slot on Feb. 6, Georgia on Feb. 13, and Michigan on Feb. 27.
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The Democratic National Committee adopted the new calendar at the behest of President Joe Biden’s political operation. Biden is likely to run for reelection, at age 82, and isn’t expected to face serious primary opposition.
For Republicans, at least, Iowa is still the first state to vote in the national candidate selection process. The GOP caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 5.
Former President Donald Trump, trying to become the first former chief executive to return to the White House after a four-year break since Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1893, has visited Iowa already and is expected to be a frequent presence there. So will Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), if he runs. DeSantis at this early stage is seen as Trump’s fiercest rival for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Still, that hasn’t stopped a pair of additional GOP candidates already camping out in the Hawkeye State: former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and “anti-woke” biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. The GOP field could soon grow, with former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) among those considering bids.
That Republicans will have Iowa to themselves in early presidential action reflects the state’s stark tilt to the right over the past decade. Iowa is effectively off the table for Democrats in presidential politics, along with the now-red states of Florida and Ohio. Former President Barack Obama twice won all three of the states. And in Iowa, Democrats previously had dominated White House races, with even 1988 Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis winning Iowa amid an otherwise crushing loss to GOP President George H.W. Bush.
From 2016 on, though, Iowa has been blood red. Trump won Iowa by about 8 points against 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and against President Joe Biden in 2020. And on Capitol Hill, Iowa’s entire congressional delegation, two senators and four House members, are all Republican. So are the governorship and majorities in both state legislative chambers.
Theories differ about why Iowa has turned so strongly Republican after decades as one of the nation’s closest battleground states. Some liken the tough times Iowa’s farmers have experienced to the drain of manufacturing jobs in Ohio, making residents more willing to listen to Trump’s protectionist message on trade policy. Others note Iowa’s lack of a deep-blue area overflowing with Democratic voters. Unlike other upper Midwestern states, such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois, it is not governed by a single large metro area. Des Moines does not have the dominance of the Twin Cities or Milwaukee, let alone Chicago.
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All of this means Republicans are unlikely to ditch Iowa as their first-voting state the way Democrats have. And Iowa, in the run-up to February 2024, will likely hear from only one party’s candidates: those on the GOP side.
But with a Trump-based field, one that may yet include more candidates, Iowa still figures to host lots of political action — enough to fill a hotel bar in Des Moines on a cold winter night, even if the Democrats may be absent.