Why is Biden bending to Putin’s Crimea red line?
Jon Sweet Mark Toth
A long-expected counter-offensive by Ukraine is drawing near. Disconcertingly, however, the Biden administration is unnecessarily trying to limit Ukraine’s options in terms of choosing either the Donbas and/or Crimean Peninsula to launch the attack.
By denying Ukraine deep strike capability in the form of ATACMS missiles and F16 fighter-bomber jets, the Biden administration is likely attempting to force Kyiv to conduct Ukraine’s looming counter-offensive in the Donbas versus Crimea.
MILLEY SAYS UKRAINE UNLIKELY TO RETAKE ALL OF ITS TERRITORY THIS YEAR
Administration fears of escalation are limiting, if not controlling, Biden’s decision-making calculus. Washington, in effect, is cowering to the Kremlin’s red line in Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling also appears to be having an effect. First, his suspension of Russia’s participation in the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty entered into in 2011, and subsequently, Moscow’s announcement of the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
Yes, Russian ground forces, along with the Wagner Group, are vulnerable in Bakhmut and elsewhere in the Donbas. They have been decimated by Ukraine, losing tens of thousands of soldiers and much material. However, solely focusing on the Donbas will not win the war. It also will not likely lead to the negotiation table as General Mark Milley, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, is predicting. Neither Putin nor Volodymyr Zelensky shows interest in settling this war via peace talks, especially as the level of trust is not there on the Ukrainian side.
Time is running out for Washington to get this right. Zelensky is now able to take the fight to Russia and drive Putin’s forces out of the entire country. To do that, Kyiv needs a full combined arms capability to strike in both the Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula.
As retired U.S. Army general Ben Hodges has emphasized, in order to liberate Crimea, Ukraine needs to make the peninsula untenable with precision deep strikes on key military facilities, headquarters, and the Kerch bridge — the logistics lifeline back to Russia; all long-range capabilities the Biden administration persistently refuses to accommodate. Tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, fighter aircraft, and attack helicopters are also needed. These would enable Ukraine the ability to shape the battlefield via interdiction, counter fires, and targeting command and control centers.
Enough prevaricating on these critical components. The fate of Ukraine, the Black Sea region, and perhaps eastern Europe is at stake.
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Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
Mark Toth is a retired economist and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing, and global commerce. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.