2024 elections: Republicans eye David McCormick as their best bet to pick up Pennsylvania Senate seat
Ryan King
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Pennsylvania Republicans are cautiously optimistic they can win a Democratic-held Senate seat in 2024 following last year’s electoral let-down — if they choose the right candidate.
Businessman David McCormick, out with a new book on Tuesday, has been fueling speculation that he will challenge Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) for his seat in 2024. Although such a showdown would likely be a dogfight, GOP operatives widely see him as their most viable shot at redressing their loss to Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) in 2022.
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“I’d say the odds are better than even. I know that a lot of people are encouraging him to run,” Republican strategist and former Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Charlie Gerow told the Washington Examiner.
“He’d be the odds-on favorite in the Republican primary, and I think he would do exceptionally well in the general election. He matches up well against Bob Casey on a variety of different planes, from personality to policy,” Gerow added. ”He has a certain understated charisma.”
McCormick’s Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan to Renew America lays out his conservative agenda and has been viewed as a prelude to a Senate run. He is set to embark on a book tour of sorts, starting out with Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) published a book around the time that he jumped into the Senate fray back in the 2010 cycle.
Ahead of its release, McCormick embarked on a media blitz and recently tapped two veteran political operatives who did campaign work for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), according to the Washington Post. He’s also been in contact with senior GOP leaders, having spoken at the National Republican Senatorial Committee winter meeting earlier this month.
During the 2022 cycle, McCormick squared off in a crowded primary field and narrowly lost to celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz by a threadbare margin of fewer than 1,000 votes, triggering a recount. At the time, Oz was seemingly buoyed by his widespread name recognition and endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
“I think that there were just so many other candidates that they each got small amounts, but those small amounts added up to enough that prevented Dave from winning,” veteran Republican consultant John Brabender said.
This time around, many Republican operatives are hoping the party will coalesce around McCormick and prevent a repeat of the bitter 2022 primary.
“There’s a lot of people that look back at 2022 and say it was an absolute statewide disaster in Pennsylvania,” Brabender said. “We had a real chance to win the Senate race and didn’t. So, I think people immediately look around and say, ‘We probably would have been better off if David McCormick was our candidate in 2022.’”
“Sometimes, you can lose a race but gain a lot of respect in how you ran. And I think that’s what happened with Dave McCormick,” Brabender added.
A recent poll from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling firm found that former GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano tops McCormick in a Senate matchup 39% to 21%, with 11% opting for Kathy Barnette, who enjoyed a late surge in the 2022 cycle. Mastriano lost resoundingly to now-Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), and some Republicans have blamed him for being an apparent drag on Oz. He has actively dangled the prospect of jumping into the Senate race.
“I think that there would be an intervention within the Republican Party if Mastriano seriously thought that he could run. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me,” Brabender said.
Top brass in the GOP have signaled as much and appear to be actively courting McCormick to enter the race. Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who is taking a more active role in helming the National Republican Senatorial Committee this cycle compared to his predecessor, has publicly cast doubt on Mastriano’s odds of winning the Senate contest.
“We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election. His last race demonstrated he can’t win a general,” Daines told HuffPost.
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Should McCormick clinch the party nod, Democrats have already foreshadowed that they will mirror some lines of attack deployed against Oz by zeroing in on his wealth. McCormick was the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, from 2020 to 2022.
“David McCormick’s latest attempt to hide his true record of outsourcing jobs and his close ties to China, Wall Street, and Mitch McConnell will fail, just like his last Senate campaign did,” David Bergstein, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement.
But unlike Oz, McCormick will likely be harder to caricature as a carpetbagger, given his ties to the Keystone State, according to some analysts. GOP operatives are also bullish that he won’t have the same verbal slip-ups Oz did, such as his crudite gaffe that fed Democratic narratives that he was out of touch with ordinary Pennsylvanians.
“He is originally from Bloomsburg, which is an old kind of industrial area of north central PA,” Widener University professor J. Wesley Leckrone said. “He does have some cred that I think Oz probably didn’t, but anytime you’re running against somebody who’s managed a hedge fund, you’re always going to use that.”
Democrats are facing one of their most brutal Senate maps in the 2024 Senate cycle, forced to defend 23 seats, three of which belong to Democratic-aligned independent senators. Republicans only have to guard 11, meaning the GOP may be better able to concentrate their financial resources in their quest for the majority than Democrats.
Yet, Casey is a formidable opponent. He trounced his Republican foe 55.7% to 42.6% during his last reelection bid in a blue-wave year back in 2018. Casey also won handily in 2012 and 2006. Further boosting him is the legacy of his father, former Gov. Bob Casey Sr.
“I have always assumed that Casey would be a senator for life. He’s pretty much the perfect Democrat for Pennsylvania,” Leckrone said. “He kind of fit into the old style of working-class Democrat in Pennsylvania, but those people have become Trump Republicans. So, it’s a real test for him.”
Despite his political brawn, GOP operatives have knocked his record.
“Casey doesn’t have much of a record for having served in the U.S. Senate for a generation. I mean, what’s Bob Casey’s signature piece of legislation?” Gerow asked. “Bob Casey got the job because he was his father’s son. Let’s be candid.”
Casey was recently treated for prostate cancer. His Pennsylvania counterpart, Fetterman, was also recently admitted to the hospital for depression and continues to suffer from stroke-induced ailments.
“It’s a real possibility there’s gonna be two Senate seats open next year,” one Republican operative said, alluding to Fetterman’s health problems. “It’s the thousand-pound gorilla standing in the middle of the room that nobody wants to talk about, including myself. But that’s a real possibility.”
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Last year’s election in Pennsylvania was devastating for Republicansas they failed to claim the governor’s office, lost control of the state House, and lost the Senate race. Ultimately, the 2024 contest will be a test of whether the party is hemorrhaging influence in the Keystone State.
“Pennsylvania is still a swing state, just like it always is, but it’s harder for Republicans to win than Democrats statewide. And you have to have the right candidate to be able to do that,” Brabender said.