Celebrating AUKUS, the UK and Australia hesitate on China hawkishness
Tom Rogan
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Growing concerns over the threat China poses to Pacific stability loomed large as President Joe Biden joined Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Monday.
Meeting in San Diego, the three leaders unveiled details of the so-called “AUKUS” submarine deal. The agreement will see the United States and the United Kingdom equip Australia with a nuclear submarine attack fleet. Those submarines will not be armed with nuclear weapons but will be powered by nuclear reactors. They will replace Australia’s conventionally powered diesel-electric submarines.
Sunak and Albanese see China differently from Biden, however.
Where Biden sees China as the preeminent national security challenge to the U.S.-led democratic international order, a challenge that must be deterred and robustly constrained, his counterparts seek a more balanced relationship with China. Yes, they want to boost their shared means of deterring Chinese aggression alongside the U.S. They also want to show Washington that they remain reliable allies. That said, they also want to boost trade links with Beijing.
PENTAGON’S BOOSTED MISSILE BUYS ARE INSUFFICIENT TO MEET CHINA’S THREAT
London and Canberra recognize Beijing’s long-standing deal, best evinced by the deference China receives from Germany and France, to provide trade and investment opportunities in return for political obedience. Put simply, if nations qualify their support for U.S. efforts to resist China’s various challenges to international order and human rights concerns, they can expect China’s rewards in terms of lucrative new economic engagements. This bears special relevance for Sunak and Albanese. While their two direct predecessors were resolutely supportive of the U.S. on China, these two newcomers to office prioritize economic growth.
As prime minister, Sunak has resisted calls from the U.K. intelligence community to identify China as an explicit threat to British interests. Instead, he is now declaring China to be an “epoch-defining challenge.” Top line: Sunak doesn’t want to upset Beijing too much. This concern is further underlined by British foreign minister James Cleverly, regarded as particularly weak on China by some in the U.K. and U.S. intelligence communities. Cleverly responded hesitantly to an incident last October in which Chinese diplomats attacked protesters on an English city street. And while Sunak has bolstered the country’s defense links with Japan, this engagement is motivated as much by his interest in strengthening trade links with Tokyo as it is by fears over China.
In the same way, Albanese’s government has moved swiftly in an attempt to improve relations with Beijing, which soured badly under the prior government. China’s confidence that it has a more pliable partner in Albanese is underlined by the increasing pressure of Chinese state media for his government to push pro-Beijing propaganda to Australians.
What does this mean for America? The AUKUS deal is positive, and Australia and the U.K. remain very close allies. Japan, however, is clearly now the most reliable U.S. ally when it comes to addressing China’s extraordinary challenge.