Russian advance losing steam as Ukraine gears up for coming counteroffensive
Jamie McIntyre
RUSSIAN FORCES STALLED, PINNED DOWN: Russian forces got as far as the east side of Bakhmut before things started to fall apart, according to the weekend analysis from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
The think-tank, which offers daily updates on the progress of the war, said Saturday that while heavy fighting continues in the eastern Ukrainian town, Wagner Group mercenaries “are likely becoming increasingly pinned in urban areas,” and are “finding it difficult to make significant advances.”
The heavy losses of the Wagner Group’s convict conscripts, who have died by the thousands after being ordered to try to overwhelm Ukrainian positions in waves of infantry assaults, have forced Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to use his “elite” fighters in an attempt to maintain offensive momentum, but “may be running out of these forces,” according to the ISW.
Prigozhin, who has complained publicly that Moscow is not supplying him with the men or ammunition he needs, has announced a new recruitment effort to replenish his depleted forces. “Prigozhin is highly likely pivoting recruitment efforts towards free Russian citizens,” tweeted the British Defense Ministry, adding that he has “likely lost access to recruiting in Russian prisons due to his ongoing disputes with the Russian MoD leadership.”
“Since the start of March 2023, Wagner has set up outreach teams based in sports centers in at least 40 locations across Russia,” the U.K. intelligence update said. “In recent days, masked Wagner recruiters also gave career talks in Moscow high schools, distributing questionnaires entitled ‘application of a young warrior’ to collect the contact details of interested pupils.”
UKRAINE FORCES RUSSIAN TROOPS ‘TO IMPALE THEMSELVES ON’ BAKHMUT AND THEN RELOAD
DISPLEASURE WITH PRIGOZHIN AT ‘BOILING POINT’: The latest ISW assessment details the fall from favor of Prigozhin, who promised Russian President Vladimir Putin his forces would take Bakhmut by the end of last year.
The tensions between Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry “likely reached a boiling point over Bakhmut,” the ISW said while outlining an extensive timeline of the deterioration in relations between the mercenary group and the MoD.
Prigozhin, who has publicly denigrated the Russian military leadership, now finds himself being cut off from support, with Putin likely to make him a scapegoat.
“Putin will likely use Wagner’s high casualties, reports about poor morale, and war crimes to deflect from likely equal or possibly worse problems within the Russian Armed Forces,” the ISW said.
“Prigozhin saw Bakhmut as an opportunity to gain leverage on the Russian MoD and likely in the Kremlin in pursuit of his own commercial and political aspirations,” the think tank concluded. “Putin has likely not decided yet whether he will spare Prigozhin, and Wagner’s fate likely depends on Prigozhin’s ability to convince the Kremlin of his loyalty.”
RUSSIA USED HYPERSONIC MISSILES IN ITS LATEST BARRAGE ACROSS UKRAINE
UKRAINE CLAIMS 7-to-1 KILL RATIO: Ukraine’s strategy in committing to the defense of Bakhmut, despite its questionable strategic values, is to inflict demoralizing losses on Russian forces in what currently is a largely stalemated war of attrition.
Ukraine claims that it has been able to kill or grievously wound seven Russian troops for every loss of a single Ukrainian soldier.
“In less than one week – since March 6 – in the Bakhmut sector alone, they managed to eliminate more than 1,100 enemy soldiers, which are Russia’s irreversible losses, losses there, near Bakhmut,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address.
Zelensky said, in addition, at least 1,500 other Russians were taken off the battlefield with “wounds incompatible with continuing fighting,” and “dozens of units of enemy equipment were destroyed,” along with more than ten Russian ammunition depots he said were “burned.”
“As Russia continues to suffer extremely heavy casualties, the impact varies dramatically across Russia’s regions. In proportion to the size of their population, the richest cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg have been left relatively unscathed,” tweeted the British Defense Ministry over the weekend. “In many of the Eastern regions, deaths are likely running, as a percentage of population, at a rate 30+ times higher than in Moscow. In places, ethnic minorities take the biggest hit; in Astrakhan some 75% of casualties come from the minority Kazakh and Tartar populations.”
US ACCUSES RUSSIA OF TRYING TO ‘FOMENT A MANUFACTURED INSURRECTION’ IN MOLDOVA
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Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY, BIDEN SEAL SUB DEAL: After President Joe Biden makes remarks at the White House at 8 a.m. aimed at reassuring nervous investors that the failure of Silicon Valley Bank has been contained and depositors will be made whole, the president will proceed with a planned trip to San Diego, where he will meet with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
The three leaders will announce details of a deal that largely leaked out last week, under which Australia will buy up to five U.S. Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines to jump-start its plan to build a nuclear submarine fleet over the next decade to counter China.
The plan calls for Australia to build its own subs with U.S. technology and support from the U.S. and U.K under the AUKUS [Australia-U.S.-U.K] partnership. Biden is scheduled to speak at 5 p.m. EDT.
SUNAK: ‘BRITAIN IS BACK’: The British government announced today it plans to increase its defense budget by about $6 billion over the next two years, mainly to replenish ammunition stocks depleted by its contributions to the Ukraine war effort. In addition, the U.K. pledged to raise its defense spending to 2.5% of GDP “in the longer term.”
“Britain is back,” Sunak said in an interview that airs tonight on NBC Nightly News. “We’re investing more in our armed forces over the next couple of years, billions of pounds more. We’re increasing our defense spending, because my belief is that the world has become more volatile.”
“The behavior that we’ve seen in China over recent times is concerning,” Sunak told NBC’s Lester Holt. “China represents the biggest state threat to our economic interests, for sure. And it’s a systemic challenge for the world order,”
MORE WEAPONS IN PENTAGON BUDGET, TOO: It’s budget day at the Pentagon, and a full day of briefings is scheduled. It will be our first look at what’s behind the numbers announced by the White House last week, $886 billion for defense, with $842 earmarked for the Pentagon.
The Biden administration will be asking for a whopping $170 billion to replace not only munitions supplied to Ukraine but also a range of missiles and other weapons that the U.S. would need were it ever to get into a shooting war with China, according to an internal budget document obtained by Bloomberg.
Here’s the lineup for today’s budget briefings, which will be livestreamed at http://www.defense.gov.
10 a.m. — Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks and Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Adm. Christopher Grady give opening statements
10:40 a.m. — Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller)/Chief Financial Officer Michael McCord and Vice Adm. Sara Joyner, director, force structure, resources and assessment, Joint Staff, provide an overview
12 p.m. — ARMY: Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo and Director of the Budget Maj. Gen. Mark Bennett
12:50 p.m. — NAVY: Undersecretary Erik Raven and Rear Adm. John Gumbleton, deputy assistant secretary for budget
1:40 p.m. — AIR FORCE: Kristyn Jones, performing the duties of undersecretary, and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Budget Maj. Gen. Mike Greiner
2:30 p.m. — MISSILE DEFENSE: Vice Adm. Jon Hill, director, Missile Defense Agency, and Michelle Atkinson, director for operations, Missile Defense Agency
McCARTHY: BIDEN’S BUDGET ‘NOT SERIOUS’: The president’s budget has already been declared dead on arrival on Capitol Hill, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) threatening to hold the need to raise the nation’s debt ceiling later this summer hostage if Biden doesn’t agree to cuts in domestic spending.
“I want to negotiate with this president, just as we have done every time before. And the American public wants us to. He’s ignored the ability, one, to negotiate, two, to show not just America, but the world, that we’re serious about getting our debt under control,” McCarthy told Maria Bartiromo, host of Fox’s Sunday Morning Futures. “This is not a serious budget. And real leadership matters here. Don’t play games with the debt ceiling.”
“This budget talks more about equality and climate change than it does dealing with China, dealing with fentanyl, dealing with putting our work force back in the workplace,” McCarthy said. “That is a real challenge. To be delayed by this president more than a month to release his budget, and to have a nonserious budget, and for a president not to show the leadership to sit down and solve this problem early only weakens America.”
On CNN Sunday, Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young accused Republicans of “playing politics.”
“When it comes to spending and what the appropriate level is, this president’s happy to talk to anyone. As a matter of fact, we funded the government on a bipartisan basis in December. Let’s do it again,” Young said. “We believe strongly the debt ceiling should not be tied to any other discussions. That is the Congress’ constitutional duty, to raise the debt ceiling. They did it three times for the former president. And the only thing that’s changed is that Joe Biden is the president. That’s playing politics with the full faith and credit of the United States. We think that’s wrong. And that should be off the table and dealt with.”
MCCARTHY SPURNS BIDEN’S $6.9 TRILLION BUDGET, SAYS ‘DON’T PLAY GAMES WITH THE DEBT CEILING’
The Rundown
War on the Rocks: Addressing the U.S. Military Recruiting Crisis
Washington Examiner: US not in hypersonic weapons ‘arms race’ with China and Russia, DOD official says
Washington Examiner: Russia used hypersonic missiles in its latest barrage across Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Ukraine forces Russian troops ‘to impale themselves on’ Bakhmut and then reload
Washington Examiner: US accuses Russia of trying to ‘foment a manufactured insurrection’ in Moldova
Washington Examiner: Menendez: US must ‘dramatically’ increase engagement with Mexico on cartels
Washington Examiner: Record sexual harassment and assault found at military academies: ‘Extremely disappointing and upsetting’
Washington Examiner: Jennifer Granholm claims US can ‘learn from what China is doing’
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Washington Examiner: Kat Cammack claims Biden is ‘dragging his feet’ on releasing COVID origins intel
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Washington Examiner: Opinion: US should reject China’s Kamala Harris-for-Kevin McCarthy Taiwan compromise
Washington Examiner: Iran and Saudi Arabia’s agreement is lipstick on a pig
AP: US turns to new ways to punish Russian oligarchs for the war
Washington Post: Defending Ukraine’s ‘highway of life’ — the last road out of Bakhmut
19fortyfive.com: 30,000 Casualties: Putin Is Destroying the Russian Military to Capture Bakhmut
Defense News: Russian Navy To Upgrade Vessels With Kalibr Cruise Missiles
New York Times: Ukraine Steps Up Calls for Evacuation of Kupiansk Under Relentless Russian Shelling
New York Times: War in Ukraine Puts Centuries of Swiss Neutrality to the Test
AP: Moldova police say they foiled Russia-backed unrest plot
AP: US, S. Korea hold drills as North launches missiles from sub
Wall Street Journal: Beijing Builds Power in Strategic Waters
Reuters: U.S.-Sanctioned General To Become Public Face Of China’s Growing Military
Defense News: China’s Neighbors Seek Expanded Partnerships With U.S. To Deter, Defend
19fortyfive.com: Why Australia Wants Virginia-Class Attack Submarines (Think China)
Bloomberg: Pentagon Puts Priority on Replacing Munitions in 2024 Budget
USNI News: Navy’s Newest Carrier USS Gerald R. Ford Faces Toughest Test Yet
Defense One: Biden Ditches Trump’s Air Force One Paint Scheme For Classic Blue-and-White
19fortyfive.com: China Must Pay for COVID-19 (Lab Leak Or Not)
Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-21 Will Be ‘Backbone’ of Bomber Fleet, AFGSC Boss Says as New Images Are Released
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Want to Grow a Beard? Not in My Military, Says Colón-López. Others Aren’t So Sure.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: With Flying Hours Limited, Simulation and Data Analysis Aid Pilot Training
New York Times: 2 Navy Ships Will Receive New Names
Military.com: ‘Go Get Screened’: Space Force Chief Urges Missileers to Get Tested as Cancer Study Underway
Calendar
MONDAY | MARCH 13
1 p.m. — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion: “The Camp Lejeune Justice Act – What Happens Next?” with Mark Behrens, partner at Shook Hardy & Bacon LLP; Paul Figley, professor at American University’s Washington College of Law; and Ashley Keller, partner at Keller Postman https://fedsoc.org/events/the-camp-lejeune-justice-act-what-happens-next
2 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Unpacking the Ukrainian Battlefield,” with Michael Kofman, director of the CNA Russia Studies Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/03/13/carnegie-connects
4 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center History and Public Policy Program book discussion: Confronting Saddam Hussein: George W. Bush and the Invasion of Iraq, with author Melvyn Leffler, professor of American history at the University of Virginia https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/confronting-saddam
TUESDAY | MARCH 14
9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Issues including China’s military capabilities, technology innovation, space and cyber strategies, prospects for conflict in the Taiwan Straits and elsewhere in the Pacific and lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war,” with Doug Wade, chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency’s China Mission Group; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “A Marshall Plan Blueprint for Ukraine,” with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; John Hewko, general secretary and CEO of Rotary International and the Rotary Foundation; David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post; and Heather Conley, president of GMFUS https://www.gmfus.org/event/marshall-plan-blueprint-ukraine
12 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group’s Defense One virtual forum: “The Future of Defense Data and IT,” with Bill Streilein, CTO of the Defense Department’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office; and Patrick Tucker, technology editor, Defense One https://events.defenseone.com/defense-readiness-workshop
12 p.m. 2075 Rayburn — Defense Forum Foundation defense and foreign policy forum: “North Korean Escapees: Current Situation and What Must Be Done,” with Lee Hyun Ae, North Korean escapee; Ji Myeong-Hui, North Korean escapee; and Han Song-Mi, North Korean escapee [email protected]
12:30 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club “Headliners Luncheon” address from Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger https://www.press.org/events/npc-headliners-luncheon
12:45 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “The US and Russia: Why Did Things Go Wrong and Where Do We Go From Here?” with James Goldgeier, professor of international relations at American University https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues discussion: “The IAEA Mission in Ukraine: A Conversation with Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi,” with Heather Williams, director, Project on Nuclear Issues and senior fellow, International Security Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/iaea-mission-ukraine-conversation
4:45 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing: “Posture of the U.S. Space Force,” with testimony from Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 15
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Ronald Keohane to be assistant secretary of defense for manpower and reserve affairs, and Nickolas Guertin to be assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition
10:30 a.m. — U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom virtual hearing: “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Religious Freedom,” with Dmytro Vovk, member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights’ Expert Panel on Freedom of Religion or Belief; Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt, president of the Conference of European Rabbis and former chief rabbi of Moscow; Rachel Denber, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Europe and Central Asia Division; Nury Turkel, USCIRF chair; Abraham Cooper, USCIRF vice chair; and Sharon Kleinbaum, USCIRF commissioner https://www.zoomgov.com/webinar/register
3 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Personnel hearing: “Military and Civilian personnel programs in the Department of Defense,” with testimony from Gilbert Cisneros, undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Shawn Skelly, assistant secretary of defense for readiness; Thomas Constable, performing the duties of the assistant secretary of defense for manpower and reserve affairs; Lester Martinez-Lopez, assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; Elizabeth Foster, executive director of force resiliency; Agnes Schaefer, assistant secretary of the Army for manpower and reserve affairs; Franklin Parker, assistant secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs; and Alex Wagner, assistant secretary of the Air Force for manpower and reserve affairs
4 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Is Congress Captured by the Arms Industry?,” with former Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA); Dan Grazier, senior defense policy fellow at the Project on Government Oversight; William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute; and Kelley Vlahos, senior adviser at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/event/is-congress-captured-by-the-arms-industry
THURSDAY | MARCH 16
7 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. — National Defense Industrial Association: “Senior Defense Leaders Forum” to review the FY2024 Defense Department budget with Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs Lt. Gen. Richard Moore; Deputy Assistant Navy Secretary for Budget Rear Adm. John Gumbleton; and Assistant Deputy Marine Corps Commandant for Programs and Resources Brig. Gen. Daniel Shipley https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2023-3-16-ndia-dc-chapter
9 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Japan’s New National Security Strategy: Northeast Asia,” with Madoka Fukuda, professor at Hosei University; and Yasuyo Sakata, professor of international relations at Kanda University of International Studies https://www.stimson.org/event/the-northeast-asia-security-environment
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Posture of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command,” with testimony from Army Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander, U.S. Central Command; and Marine Gen. Michael Langley, commander, U.S. Africa Command
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and Defense Acquisition Program Administration Republic of Korea-U.S. Defense Industrial Cooperation for a Resilient Global Supply Chain Conference, with Michael Vaccaro, principal deputy assistant defense secretary for industrial base policy; and Pat Mason, deputy assistant Army secretary for defense exports and cooperation https://www.csis.org/events/dapa-csis-conference-2023-rok-us
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group Defense One discussion: “State of the Marines,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; and Brig. Gen. Joseph Clearfield, deputy commander of Marine Corps Forces Pacific https://d1stateofdefense.com/
11 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion on a new report: “C4ISR (Command and Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance): Assessment and Recommendations After Madrid,” with retired Army Maj. Gen. Gordon Davis; retired Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, board director of the Atlantic Council; John Baylouny, executive vice president, chief operating officer, Leonardo DRS; and Sherill Lingel, director, Force Modernization and Employment Program, RAND Project Air Force https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/report-launch-the-future-of-nato-c4isr
12 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Making AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-U.S.) Work for the U.S.-Australia Alliance,” with Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security; and William Greenwalt, nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/03/16/making-aukus-work
1 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute discussion: “The Iraq War at 20 Years” https://www.cato.org/events/iraq-war-20-years
FRIDAY | MARCH 17
10 a.m. — Wilson Center’s Asia Program virtual discussion: “Taiwan and Its Partners Beyond the Silicon Shield,” with Shelley Rigger, professor at Davidson College; and Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/taiwan
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Attracting and Scaling Private Capital in Support of National Security,” with Jason Rathje, director of the Defense Department’s Office of Strategic Capital https://www.csis.org/events/dods-office-strategic-capital
12 p.m. 112 Elden St., Herndon, Va. — Clare Boothe Luce Center for Conservative Women discussion: “The Communist China Threat,” with Victoria Coates, senior research fellow for international affairs and national security at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Freedom. RSVP: Lindsey Cruz, [email protected]
1 p.m. 1957 E Street NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “Nuclear Security: Our View from Vienna,” with Laura Holgate, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Vienna Office https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/nuclear_security
MONDAY | MARCH 20
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar with Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces, air component commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Register: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march-20
QUOTE OF THE DAY “President Trump was wrong. I had no right to overturn the election. And his reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day, and I know history will hold Donald Trump accountable.” Former Vice President Mike Pence in remarks Saturday at the annual white-tie Gridiron dinner in Washington D.C.