Biden reportedly will propose a 2.3% increase in Pentagon budget, less than half the current inflation rate
Jamie McIntyre
A MERE 2.3%: With the current rate of inflation running at 6.4%, and the Fed warning of another inflationary cycle looming, the Biden administration is reportedly planning to propose a 2.3% increase in the Pentagon’s “topline” budget for next year, from $816 billion to $835 billion.
The numbers come from Bloomberg’s Tony Capaccio, who reported Tuesday that officials were touting the DOD’s fiscal year 2024 spending plan as “one of the nation’s largest peacetime defense budgets,” with record increases for weapons procurement ($170 billion) and research and development ($145 billion).
But you can already hear the yowls of protest from Capitol Hill, especially from Republicans who excoriated President Joe Biden last year for proposing a military budget that failed to account for inflation at a time of rising threats from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
The $835 billion dollar figure, which does not include separate appropriations for national security programs within the Energy Department and elsewhere, is a $19 billion increase, which at 2.3%, is just over one-third of the current rate of inflation.
Last year, most Republicans and many Democrats deemed Biden’s request “woefully inadequate,” and, by wide bipartisan consensus, added $40 billion to the FY 2023 defense budget. A similar boost this year would put total U.S. defense spending at more than $900 billion.
BIDEN’S BUDGET BATTLE: President Joe Biden will outline some of the broad themes of his proposed budget for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 in a 2:30 p.m. speech at the Finishing Trades Institute in Philadelphia, Pa.
“The President will release his Budget for Fiscal Year 2024 and deliver remarks on his plans to invest in America, continue to lower costs for families, protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare, reduce the deficit, and more,” the White House said in a statement.
“The president’s budget cuts the deficit again by nearly $3 trillion over the next decade,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. “The budget achieves this while lowering costs for families, investing in America and protecting programs Americans have paid into because it proposes tax reforms to ensure the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share, while cutting wasteful spending on special interests like Big Oil and Big Pharma.”
Under the plan, Biden would increase funding for Medicare with an increase in taxes on incomes of more than $400.000.
DEAD ON ARRIVAL: As with all federal budgets, it is Congress, not the executive branch, that has “the power of the purse,” so the president’s spending plan amounts to little more than a wish list. And with Republicans in the majority in the House and Democrats lacking a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, Republican leaders have already declared it “dead on arrival.”
“The president’s budget is replete with what they would do if they could. Thank goodness the House is Republican,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “Massive tax increases, more spending, all of which the American people can thank the Republican House for, will not see the light of day.”
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) criticized Biden for submitting his budget a month after what used to be the normal release date of early February and blamed the delay for causing an inability of House Republicans to propose their own budget.
“One of the biggest challenges we have is the disappointment of the president being so delayed in doing his budget. That harms the economy,” McCarthy said. “We don’t even have the president’s budget yet. We would have loved to be able to do it. We have to analyze the president’s budget. We don’t know what it is. Once we walk through all of that, then we could take our hearings and we could start moving forward.”
MCCONNELL HOSPITALIZED AFTER FALLING DURING PRIVATE DINNER AT DC HOTEL
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HAPPENING TODAY: IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is hosting another round of talks trying to overcome Turkey’s resistance to the admittance of Finland and — more intractably — Sweden to the NATO alliance as soon as possible.
“I met with President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan a couple of weeks ago. That was a good meeting,” Stoltenberg said before a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union in Stockholm. “Erdogan agreed to restart the talks and to have a meeting with Finland, Sweden and Turkiye at NATO Headquarters,” Stoltenberg said. “That in itself is an important thing after a long period without any talks. This is a process.”
“I don’t expect the process to be concluded [today], but I am confident that Finland, Sweden will become NATO allies,” he said. “This is a top priority. We are going to continue to integrate Finland and Sweden into our alliance.”
STOLTENBERG: ‘BAKHMUT MAY FALL’: Stoltenberg says the Wagner Group’s brutal tactic of sending large numbers of infantry troops to almost certain death to wear down Ukrainian forces may soon result in Ukraine ceding the town, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s vow to deny Russia even a “small” victory.
“This is tactical for us,” Zelensky said in an interview with CNN that aired last night. “We understand that after Bakhmut, they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, to Sloviansk. And it will be open roads for the Russians.”
“What we see is that Russia is storming in more troops, more forces and what Russia lacks in quality, they try to make up in quantity,” Stoltenberg said. “They have suffered big losses, but at the same time, we cannot rule out that Bakhmut may eventually fall in the coming days.”
“This does not necessarily reflect any turning point of the war and it just highlights that we should not underestimate Russia … We must continue to provide support to Ukraine.”
US INTEL: PUTIN STILL THINKS HE CAN WIN: Russian President Vladimir Putin likely believes time is on his side and he can still achieve his goals in Ukraine despite the devastating casualties and humiliating battlefield losses suffered in the first year of the war, according to the U.S. top spymaster.
“We do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains, but Putin most likely calculates that time works in his favor and that prolonging the war, including with potential pauses in the fighting, may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years,” Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, testified during a Senate Committee yesterday.
“On the battlefield, there is currently a grinding attritional war in which neither side has a definitive military advantage,” Haines testified. “The Russians are making incremental progress on Bakhmut, which is not a particularly strategic objective, but are otherwise facing considerable constraints, including personnel and ammunition shortages, dysfunction within the military’s leadership, exhaustion as well as morale challenges.”
“And while these Russian assaults are costly for Russia,” she continued, “the extent to which Ukrainian forces are having to draw down their reserves and equipment as well as suffer further casualties will all likely factor into Ukraine’s ability to go on the offensive later this spring.”
SPY CHIEF WARNS DRAGONBEAR ALLIANCE ‘CONTINUING TO DEEPEN’ IN ‘EVERY SECTOR’
HUDSON: UKRAINE SHOWS ‘STEELY RESOLVE OF THE SPARTANS’: In the Hudson Institute’s latest Ukraine Military Situation Report, senior fellow Can Kasapoglu argues that Ukraine’s dogged defense of Bakhut — a small town that has been reduced to rubble and holds little strategic value — while valiant, “threatens to further attrite Ukrainian forces and increase their casualties,” and “potentially jeopardize Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive campaign.”
“Kyiv’s decision to hold the line in Bakhmut at all costs evokes the steely resolve of the Spartans at the Battle of Thermopylae,” writes Kasapoglu. “Sadly, resolve may be the only characteristic shared by the Spartans and the Ukrainians, as the battle for Bakhmut does not favor the defenders in terms of battleground geometry or force generation requirements.”
“Wagner units, supported by Russian airborne troops, have penetrated the town’s tactical depth, while flanking the supply routes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. More importantly, the situation demands continuous reinforcements that stretch Kyiv’s limited manpower.”
THE SHOT NOT TAKEN: The testimony at yesterday’s House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing probing failures during the fall of Kabul in August 2021 was gripping and, at times, heart-wrenching.
Former Marine Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews, who lost his right arm and left leg in the blast at the Abbey Gate of the Kabul airport, believes he had the suicide bomber in his sights, but couldn’t get permission to take a shot.
“Throughout the entirety of the day on Aug. 26, 2021, we disseminated the suicide bomber information to ground forces at Abbey Gate,” Vargas-Andrews testified. The alert said to be on the lookout for two men, which Vargas-Andrews believes he spotted in the crowd.
“They both had obvious mannerisms that go along with who we believed him to be. They handed out small cards to the crowd periodically, and the older man sat calmly and seemingly coached the bomber. Over the communication network, we passed that there was a potential threat and an attack imminent. This was as serious as it could get,” he said.
“Eventually, the individual disappeared. To this day, we believe he was a suicide bomber. We made everyone on the ground aware. Operations had briefly halted but then started again. Plain and simple, we were ignored,” he added. “Our expertise was disregarded. No one was held accountable for our safety.”
The bomber, later identified as an ISIS-K operative who had been freed from prison at the abandoned Bagram Airfield, killed 13 U.S. service members and roughly 170 Afghan civilians who were massed at the airport gate.
MARINE WOUNDED IN KABUL AIRPORT BOMBING SAYS ‘NO ONE WAS HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR OUR SAFETY’
ARMY’S THROWBACK SLOGAN: ‘BE ALL YOU CAN BE’: Back in 2001, the Army ditched the recruiting slogan it used for two decades and replaced it with the short-lived “Army of One.” Then came “Army Strong,” followed by “Warriors Wanted.”
But like classic Coke, sometimes you just can’t improve a tried-and-true formula, and yesterday, the Army announced it was rebranding “Be All You Can Be” for a new generation.
“At a time when political, economic, and social factors are changing how young Americans view the world, the new Army brand illustrates how service in the Army is grounded in passion and purpose,” said Army Secretary Christine Wormuth in a National Press Club roll-out. “Serving our nation is a calling, and one that is fundamentally hopeful. We want a new generation of Americans to see the Army as a pathway to the lives and careers they want to achieve.”
The new campaign comes as all the military services, but the Army in particular, are suffering recruiting shortfalls.
“The @USArmy is full of countless opportunities for people to explore their passions and promise while also serving their country,” tweeted Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, a retired four-star Army general, who posted a video of the campaign’s first TV spot.
DOWN TO 31 AT GITMO: The Pentagon has announced another prisoner transfer from the U.S. detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Ghassan Al Sharbi, a U.S.-educated engineer and suspected al Qaeda bombmaker, has been repatriated to Saudi Arabia after 20 years of detention. He was never charged or brought to trial.
As of today, there are 31 detainees remaining at Guantanamo — 17 are eligible for transfer; three are eligible for a Periodic Review Board; nine are involved in the military commissions process; and two detainees have been convicted in military commissions, the Pentagon says.
INDUSTRY WATCH: At this week’s Air Force Association Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colorado, Boeing and Shield AI signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on building warplanes piloted not by humans, but by AI, artificial intelligence.
Shield AI is the developer of “Hivemind,” an AI pilot designed to “enable swarms of drones and aircraft to operate autonomously without GPS, communications, or a pilot,” according to the company.
“Like a human pilot, Hivemind reads and reacts to the battlefield, and does not require GPS, waypoints, or prior knowledge to make decisions,” the company says on its website. “It is the first and only fully autonomous AI pilot deployed in combat since 2018. From indoor building clearance with quadcopters to integrated air defense breach with fixed-wing drones, and F-16 dogfights, Hivemind learns and autonomously executes missions.”
In December, the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, DARPA, demonstrated that AI software algorithms, uploaded into a specially modified Lockheed Martin test aircraft, could control an actual F-16 in flight. The companies involved in the test included Shield AI, as well as EpiSci, PhysicsAI, and the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
“Boeing continues to leverage talent from across the enterprise to make great strides in autonomous capabilities and programs in recent years,” said Steve Nordlund, vice president and general manager for Boeing’s Air Dominance organization. “Collaborating with Shield AI, the leader in AI pilots, will accelerate our ability to deliver these capabilities to the warfighter.”
Boeing is the maker of the Air Force’s F-15EX and the Navy’s F-18 Super Hornet.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FLIES FIGHTER JET FOR 17 HOURS STRAIGHT IN AVIATION FIRST
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: McConnell hospitalized after falling during private dinner at DC hotel
Washington Examiner: Congress investigates deadly withdrawal and current threats from Afghanistan
Washington Examiner: Marine wounded in Kabul airport bombing says ‘no one was held accountable for our safety’
Washington Examiner: Rubio, Wicker claim Pentagon has not answered key questions about Chinese spy balloon
Washington Examiner: U.S. left behind more than $7 billion of military equipment in Taliban-run Afghanistan
Washington Examiner: Senate panel advances bill to repeal Iraq and Gulf war authorizations
Washington Examiner: Spy chief warns DragonBear alliance ‘continuing to deepen’ in ‘every sector’
Washington Examiner: Opinion: A US military insurgency against the Mexican drug cartels would be bloody and difficult
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Kevin McCarthy has a weak excuse for rejecting an invitation to Ukraine
AP: China’s Xi calls for ‘more quickly elevating’ armed forces
Bloomberg: China Is Scrambling To Find Pilots To Fly From Its Growing Aircraft Carrier Fleet
AP: Major Russian missile barrage slams targets across Ukraine
Reuters: Russia kills at least 6 civilians in first huge missile wave for weeks
New York Times: U.S. Official Doubts Moscow Has the Firepower to Keep Advancing
Bloomberg: Russian Cyberwar in Ukraine Stumbles Just Like Conventional One
Bloomberg: Pentagon’s Budget Will Seek Big Increases for Weapons Buying and R&D
Washington Post: In race to arm Ukraine, U.S. faces cracks in its manufacturing might
New York Times: Germany Treads A Careful Line Over Reports That A Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged The Nord Stream Pipeline.
AP: Veterans testify of ‘catastrophic’ impact of Afghan collapse
Yonhap: N. Korea fires short-range ballistic missile toward Yellow Sea: S. Korean military
Reuters: Australia expected to buy up to 5 Virginia class submarines as part of AUKUS
19fortyfive.com: Bakhmut: A Modern-Day Stalingrad That Decides the Ukraine War?
19fortyfive.com: Putin Has Lost a Staggering 3,000 Tanks in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: WATCH THIS: Video Shows Single Soldier From Ukraine Stopping a Russian Attack
Stars and Stripes: Pentagon Worries Deploying U.S. Troops Against Drug Cartels Could Damage Relations With Mexico
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Combat Command Planner: Misconception that CCAs Will Be ‘Attritable’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: ‘Mobilize the Nation’: Leaders Issue Passionate Call to Military Service
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Wilsbach: No PACAF Airman Is Excused from Practicing ACE
19fortyfive.com: B-21: The Air Force Just Dropped New Stealth Bomber Photos
Virginian-Pilot: Navy Carriers, Submarines Cleared To Use 3D Printed Parts
Forbes: Navy Shortfall In P-8 Antisubmarine Aircraft Could Be A Problem For The Air Force Too
The Cipher Brief: We May Already Be in a Cold War with China
Calendar
THURSDAY | MARCH 9
8 a.m. 2043 Rayburn — Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition “Congressional Forum,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); and Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) https://amphibiouswarship.org/congressional-forum
8:30 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies fifth annual “Forum on Security Challenges in Latin America” https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Space Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; and Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “Defense in a Digital Era: Artificial Intelligence, Information Technology, and Securing the Department of Defense,” with testimony from John Sherman, DOD chief information officer; and Craig Martell, DOD chief digital and artificial intelligence officer https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/cyber-information-technologies
9:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “The Biden Administration’s New U.S. Conventional Arms Transfer Policy,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional Security Mira Resnick; Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Christopher Le Mon; Annie Shiel, U.S. advocacy director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict; and Dak Hardwick, vice president of international affairs at the Aerospace Industries Association https://www.stimson.org/event/the-biden-administrations
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Against All Odds: Supporting Civil Society and Human Rights in Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan,” with State Department Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights Rina Amiri; former Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission Chairwoman Shaharzad Akbar, executive director of Rawadari; Aref Dostyar, senior adviser at the University of Notre Dame’s Kroc Institute; and Anne Richard, Afghanistan coordination lead at Freedom House https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-against-all-odds
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Senior Enlisted Leader Perspective,” with testimony from Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy James Honea; Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force Joanne Bass; Sgt. Major of the Marine Corps Troy Black; and Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force Roger Towberman https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/military-personnel-subcommittee
10:30 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Governor of Okinawa, Japan, Denny Tamaki news conference. Email Mark Olson, [email protected]
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group visual discussion: “The State of the Navy,” as part of the State of Defense series https://d1stateofdefense.com/
1 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee hearing: “U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command — Challenges and Resource Priorities for Fiscal Year 2024,” with testimony from Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense, special operations and low intensity conflict; Army Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/intelligence-and-special-operations
2:30 p.m. Ottawa, Canada — Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense virtual discussion: “Transforming our Armed Forces for the Future: People, Technology and Designing the Force,” with U.S. Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Adm. Christopher Grady; and Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command https://cdainstitute.ca/events/ottawa-conference-on-security-and-defence
3 p.m. 390 Cannon — House Veterans’ Affairs Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing: “Accountability at VA: Leadership Decisions Impacting its Employees and Veterans,” with testimony from VA Chief Human Capital Officer Tracey Therit https://veterans.house.gov/calendar/
4 p.m. 2130 H St. NW — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion with Governor of Okinawa, Japan, Denny Tamaki, on “The Islands’ Changing Security Situation” https://quincyinst.org/event/okinawa-governor-tamaki
4 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The U.S.-Philippines Alliance,” with Philippines Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-u-s-philippines-alliance
FRIDAY | MARCH 10
8:15 a.m. 11493 Sunset Hills Rd., Reston, Va.— Government Executive Media Group Power Breakfast discussion: “Doing Business with the Air Force,” focusing on artificial intelligence and information technology, with Air Force Deputy Chief Information Officer Winston Beauchamp https://washingtontechnology.com/feature/Doing-Business-with-the-Air-Force/
9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “U.S. and Adversary Hypersonic Programs,” with testimony from Michael White, principal director for hypersonic, Office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (Modernization); Michael Horowitz, director, DOD Emerging Capabilities Policy Office; Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, strategic systems programs, U.S. Navy; Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, director, hypersonics, directed energy, space, U.S. Army; Lt. Gen. Donna Shipton, military deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics; and Paul Freisthler, chief scientist for science and technology, Defense Intelligence Agency https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strategic-forces
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Are China’s Intentions Toward Taiwan Changing?” with Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang, professor, Tamkang University’s Institute of Strategic Studies; Phil Saunders, director, National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow, National Defense University Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow, USIP; and moderator Jennifer Staats, director, East and Southeast Asia Programs, USIP
https://www.usip.org/events/are-chinas-intentions-toward-taiwan-changing
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Support for Ukraine’s Defense in the 118th Congress,” with Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) https://www.hudson.org/events/support-ukraine-defense-118th-congress
MONDAY | MARCH 20
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar with Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces, air component commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Register: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march-20
QUOTE OF THE DAY “To this day, we believe he was a suicide bomber. We made everyone on the ground aware. Operations had briefly halted but then started again. Plain and simple, we were ignored … Our expertise was disregarded. No one was held accountable for our safety.” Former Marine Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews, a double amputee, testifying before the House Foreign Affairs Commitee about spotting a suspected suicide bomber in the crowd at the Kabul airport, but not being cleared to take a shot at him