Hoosier nominee? Not Ron Klain, who is wise not to run
David Freddoso
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Ron Klain, President Joe Biden’s former chief of staff, has made it known that he will not be running for U.S. Senate from Indiana. That’s a smart move on his part.
The first reason Klain shouldn’t run is that he is a professional Twitter addict, not a viable politician. But the more important reason is that Indiana has become a one-party Republican state. Hoosiers already hate Biden — the last measure of his disapproval rating had him at 61% — and so it would be extra difficult for any Democrat to swing against the tide there in a presidential year like 2024.
The composition of red and blue states is constantly changing. Some states, such as Virginia, Arizona, and Colorado, have moved closer to Democrats in the last 20 years. But Democrats’ national lurch to the left has made them very unappealing in many formerly politically competitive states, such as Florida, Missouri, and Iowa, which have as a result escaped the donkey party’s political orbit. The Hoosier State is definitely one of these. In short, Indiana has come a very long way since Barack Obama won its electoral votes in 2008.
The state’s modern Democratic Party had its swan song in 2012. In that year’s Senate race, Democrat Joe Donnelly defeated the Republicans’ gaffe-prone nominee, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Also, thanks to a weird right-left coalition of anti-common-core and left-wing groups, Democrat Glenda Ritz narrowly squeaked out a victory for state school superintendent (a position that is now appointed). Each of these Democrats would go on to serve just one term before losing.
But even in 2012, at the Democrats’ modern zenith, there were limits to what they could win. That same year, Mike Pence barely (by 3 points) defeated John Gregg for governor. And Obama lost the state this time by more than 10 points.
Since 2012, it’s been all downhill for Democrats. They have not won a single statewide race.
In 2014, Republicans won all of the lower-tier statewide row offices. None of the races were close — in fact, no Democrat managed to crack 40%.
In the 2016 Senate race, then-Rep. Todd Young crushed former Sen. Evan Bayh, arguably the strongest Democratic candidate available in the state, by 10 points.
In 2018, Mike Braun defeated Donnelly by 6 points. That may not sound impressive, but Donnelly was the incumbent, and 2018 was a national Democratic wave year.
In 2020, Donald Trump cracked 60% for the first time in Indiana, and center-right Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) won by 24 points.
Finally, in 2022, Republicans swept all the minor statewide offices once again and nearly took over one of the two congressional districts that had been set aside on purpose for Democrats to win. I don’t think it is outlandish to predict that that specific district — the first district, which is basically the buckle of the Rust Belt in northwest Indiana — will probably go Republican by the end of this decade.
At the legislative level, Democrats entered the 2010 election season clinging to a tenuous and gerrymander-dependent 52-48 majority in the state House. But their entire party collapsed after their huge election losses that year. Unable to draw new lines to preserve their political power and unable to stop Republicans from drawing more favorable lines for themselves, they quickly fell into permanent superminority status. Democrats now control only 11 out of 50 seats in the state Senate and 29 out of 100 in the state House.
Republicans have used their grip on power in Indiana to make great strides both in terms of politics and policy. This includes two measures that struck at the very heart of the Democrats’ coalition — a right-to-work law and an almost-universal school choice voucher program, which, along with public charter schools, is currently revolutionizing the state’s education system. The state had a $6 billion surplus last year and a $4 billion surplus the year before, and the voters seem pleased.
In short, Indiana is no longer a friendly environment for Democratic politicians. The state Democratic Party has no bench to speak of, as the mere mention of Klain as a potential candidate demonstrates. They won’t win next year unless Republicans nominate someone completely insane. That isn’t going to happen in the 2024 Senate election, so Klain is very wise to make other plans.