The ‘biggest upset’ of 2022 bodes ill for Republican hopes of winning House
Daniel Chaitin
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A House seat flipping to the Democratic Party is being christened as a tremendous, if not the most stunning result of the midterm elections, boding ill for Republicans in their quest to take control of the lower chamber.
Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez edging out Republican Joe Kent to represent Washington’s 3rd Congressional District “is the biggest upset of the 2022 election — she had only a 2% chance in our final forecast,” tweeted Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, after the race was called Saturday evening.
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“This is a big upset: so far, it’s the only race in one of [Cook Political Report’s] Lean/Likely columns that has gone the other way,” Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report, said after calling the race with his signature “I’ve seen enough” line.
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Gluesenkamp Perez, an auto repair shop owner, focused her campaign on combating inflation, lowering the cost of living, and abortion rights. She cast Kent as an “extremist.” He is an ally of former President Donald Trump who defeated incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler, one of 10 Republicans in the House to vote to impeach Trump for “incitement of insurrection” after the Capitol riot.
With 70% reporting, Gluesenkamp Perez led Kent 50.8%-49.2%, which came out to be 154,169 votes to 149,548 votes, according to the Associated Press. With their weaker-than-expected performance this cycle, Republicans are in jeopardy of letting the House slip from their grasp.
Steve Kornacki, national political correspondent for MSNBC and NBC News, revised the House projection to show Republicans winning 219 seats, just one more than the 218 needed to get a lock on the chamber. He “stressed” that this new reading is within the margin of error, which was four seats.
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With 20 races that remain undecided as of Sunday morning, Democrats have 204 seats, while Republicans won 211.
Compounding the news for Republicans on Saturday was the Senate race in Nevada being called for incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) over Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, ensuring Democrats will maintain control of the upper chamber, even with Georgia still to be called.