Trump made one big miscalculation about the field in the 2024 GOP race
W. James Antle III
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Former President Donald Trump’s decision to enter the race for the 2024 Republican nomination so early is looking like a mistake as his first major competitor throws her hat into the ring.
Trump hoped to clear the Republican field of competition by deterring any potential competitors, a move that failed now that former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who had once promised to forgo the race if her old boss declared, has joined him as a candidate.
But Trump’s initial premise may also have been mistaken. Instead of freezing the field, he should be saying the more, the merrier.
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Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who has yet to make his 2024 intentions known, does best against Trump in the polls one on one. A recent Monmouth University poll showed Republican votes favoring DeSantis by double digits, with 53% of the vote to Trump’s 40%. Factor others into the race, and the two Florida men were tied at 33% apiece.
An OnMessage Inc. poll commissioned by the conservative American Principles Project similarly showed DeSantis beating Trump 53% to 38% in a two-way battle. The survey did not test other candidates.
A Missouri poll by Remington Research found Trump jumped out to the lead in a three-way race with DeSantis and Haley. FiveThirtyEight summed up the dynamic well: “DeSantis polls well against Trump — as long as no one else runs.”
Whether this applies only to DeSantis or any Republican could inherit his support if they got Trump one on one remains to be seen. But this isn’t a new phenomenon.
Trump won the 2016 GOP nomination by beating 16 other candidates, receiving plurality support in many key primaries. He took 35.3% in New Hampshire and 32.5% in South Carolina, two contests that proved critical to his securing the nomination.
The former president’s allies appear to understand a crowded primary field suits him best. “I hope they all get in,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), who has endorsed Trump, told the Washington Examiner.
“The die-hard MAGA supporters won’t vote for anyone but Trump. Everyone else who gets in dilutes support for DeSantis,” a pro-Trump Republican operative previously told the Washington Examiner. “Basically, we’re praying Nikki Haley runs.”
Those prayers have been answered. The three most recent polls on RealClearPolitics testing a multicandidate race have Trump up by double digits, though a University of New Hampshire poll shows DeSantis up by 12 points with 11 candidates included.
But Trump’s months of having the field to himself haven’t garnered rave reviews. His 2024 campaign has been closer to his favorite nickname for President Joe Biden — sleepy — than a quasi-incumbent dominating the race.
Trump also lost some of his sheen in the midterm elections when a number of his endorsed candidates lost in November. Those defeats proved decisive to the Democrats retaining the Senate, even expanding to 51 seats and relieving Vice President Kamala Harris of some of her tiebreaking duties.
In addition to Trump, DeSantis, and Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), former Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney, and former Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan are thought to be eyeing the race.
Many of these aspirants are far behind Trump and DeSantis in the polls. It is not clear what the race will look like if DeSantis, who is believed to be waiting for the end of the Florida legislative session to make a final decision, does not run.
Biden, by contrast, appears to have succeeded in clearing the Democratic field without declaring his intentions. No major Democrat seems to even be seriously exploring a primary bid. The Democratic National Committee has revised the primary calendar to make it more favorable to Biden, who has been increasingly sounding and behaving like a candidate.
The president’s former White House chief of staff, Ron Klain, has said he expects Trump to be the 2024 Republican nominee, setting up a rematch of the last presidential election. Biden’s recent focus on manufacturing jobs and outreach to blue-collar voters suggest they are strategizing to neutralize Trump’s biggest advantages in the battleground states relative to other Republicans.
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Before Trump can have a rematch against Biden in his bid to become the first president to serve nonconsecutive terms since Grover Cleveland, he will first have to get through the Republican primaries.
Trump may benefit from a lot of competition.