The US and China want to pop their balloon issue
Daniel DePetris
Ten days after a U.S. F-22 fighter aircraft downed a People’s Liberation Army surveillance balloon off the South Carolina coast, U.S. and Chinese officials are struggling to find an exit ramp.
They appear to have settled on a two-track strategy. The first aims to get past the Balloongate controversy. Both countries appear to want to restore (at least partially, anyway) business-like relations. The second part of the strategy is a public relations campaign to win the narrative. Both countries are playing the victim and pointing the finger at the other for aggressive, undiplomatic behavior.
U.S. national security officials are unrolling more details on the nature of Beijing’s spy programs. Chinese officials are fighting back, insisting on their farcical claim of an errant weather balloon drifting off course. They allege that Washington is doing exactly the things it accuses Beijing of doing. A foreign ministry spokesperson stated that more than 10 U.S. balloon flights have occurred over Chinese soil over the last year. The U.S. National Security Council quickly denied China’s claims, calling them an “example of China scrambling to do damage control” after being called out and embarrassed internationally.
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At the same time, however, one gets a feeling that Washington and Beijing would like this balloon saga to deflate. President Joe Biden, for instance, could have harshly scolded China during his State of the Union address for the intrusion of American airspace and threatened consequences for its public violation of U.S. sovereignty. He certainly would have received a standing ovation from both sides of the aisle if he did. Instead, the president kept his cool, warned Beijing that the U.S. will always defend itself, and reiterated his contention that Washington wanted responsible competition, not conflict, with China. These are the words of somebody who doesn’t want to heighten the temperature.
Similarly, China could have retaliated in kind after the U.S. Commerce Department placed six additional Chinese entities on its export blacklist last week for being involved in Beijing’s balloon program. Such action would be in keeping with the Chinese Communist Party’s modus operandi; when Washington has sanctioned Chinese individuals or closed Chinese consulates on U.S. soil in the past, China has responded rapidly and proportionally. Yet Xi Jinping has yet to respond to the latest export control measures. This could be an indication that he’s more interested in continuing the work he and Biden committed to during their November summit in Bali.
The Biden administration has also taken pains to let everybody within earshot know that regular communications with China are imperative — if not to resolve intractable problems, then to ensure they don’t spiral into crises. When asked if the U.S. and China were still communicating after the U.S. shot down the balloon, the Pentagon told reporters that “responsible nations act responsibly, and we have always been and will remain open to communication to try to prevent miscalculation.” Rumors of a possible sit-down between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, at the Munich Security Conference running from Feb. 17-19 come less than two weeks after the White House postponed Blinken’s visit to Beijing.
Yes, China hawks in Congress will groan about the very notion of a discussion with Beijing. There are probably more than a few on China’s side of the equation demanding the same hostility in Beijing. But leaders with foresight don’t have the luxury of mouthing popular but empty slogans — especially if they lead the world’s most important bilateral relationship.
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Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.