Advantage GOP: Five boosts that could power Republicans in 2024
Ryan King
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After weathering three lackluster election performances, Republicans are starting to gear up for the next election in an effort to reverse their political fortunes.
This week, the GOP’s 2024 primary field is expected to grow larger with former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley’s major announcement on Wednesday. As the party continues to mobilize for the presidential cycle that’s less than two years away, here are five advantages that could boost the GOP’s 2024 election prospects.
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Senate map
Perhaps the greatest structural advantage the GOP has heading into the election is the outlook for Senate races. Democrats have found themselves in a defensive crunch and will be forced to defend 23 seats, three of which are held by Democratic-aligned independent senators. Republicans only have to defend 11.
This means that Democrats will be forced to divvy up their financial power and resources, while Republicans will be able to concentrate their political firepower against more vulnerable members of the Democrats’ ranks.
Worsening matters for Democrats is the fact that they currently possess a razor-thin 51-49 majority in the upper chamber, meaning Republicans will only have to flip one or two seats depending on whether they claim the vice presidency in 2024.
Although it is still early, preliminary race ratings from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report indicate that there are three toss-up Senate races in 2024: Arizona, West Virginia, and Ohio. Meanwhile, there are five seats that “lean Democratic:” Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Economy
Since President Joe Biden assumed the presidency, he has been dogged by criticisms about the economy. Pandemic-induced snares in supply chains, surging energy prices, and unbridled inflation rates dominated headlines during his first two years in office, fueling Republican fodder.
Recently, multiple bright spots have emerged with respect to the economy. Inflation appears to be cooling, unemployment numbers remain low, and some economists have become more optimistic that the United States will avert a recession.
However, the U.S. economy isn’t out of the woods yet. The Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates elevated and robust unemployment figures could entice them to continue jacking up rates or at least maintain the current position going forward.
Some uncertainty over energy still lingers as well, as repercussions from the war in Ukraine continue to ripple supply chains and the OPEC+ oil cartel refrains from ramping up production.
Additionally, large corporations, especially Big Tech companies, have been undergoing mass layoffs. While this hasn’t dramatically hampered unemployment figures at large, it signals belt-tightening across industries that could be a damper on gross domestic product growth. This, in turn, could sour voters’ moods ahead of the election against Democrats.
GOP investigations
Republicans have harnessed their newfound powers in the House to turn up the heat on Democrats, especially the Biden family. Similar to the Benghazi hearings during the Obama administration, congressional investigators are on the hunt, eager to get to the bottom of various hot-button political scandals.
Some of these inquiries include the border crisis, Biden’s handling of classified documents, the tumultuous withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the alleged “weaponization” of the Justice Department against conservatives.
Polling indicates that the public is skeptical of the Republican investigations and perturbed that the inquiries will turn into a political smoke screen. But the looming onslaught of investigations leaves open the possibility that the GOP will dig up something politically damaging against Democrats.
Already, the House Oversight Committee has begun its sweeping investigations into the Biden family’s overseas business dealings, particularly Hunter Biden’s ties to China and Ukraine.
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Biden’s flailing popularity
Despite a trove of bipartisan political victories over his past two years in office, President Joe Biden’s approval rating among voters remains underwater. There appears to be little enthusiasm for him, and whispers of consternation about his age and ability to perform a second term as commander in chief that he would close off at age 86 loom large.
Luckily for Democrats, the outlook for Republicans isn’t much brighter. Former President Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in large swaths of the country, and Biden has already beaten him before.
But Biden is also the incumbent and, therefore, likely to bear the blame for the nation’s troubles in 2024. Furthermore, Republicans are careening toward an open primary contest, giving them an opportunity to nominate a candidate with less political baggage.
Biden appears a lock for the Democratic nomination if he chooses to vie for reelection. Early polls show him struggling in head-to-head matchups with top Republican contenders.
Foreign policy
Foreign policy woes from abroad could build up and hamper Democratic prospects in 2024. Biden’s approval ratings first dipped into the red during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and have never turned positive since that time, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.
The international arena remains fluctuating, with a bloody war raging in Ukraine and China becoming increasingly assertive on the world stage. These international plights run the risk of spiraling and becoming domestic political liabilities for the Biden administration in 2024.
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While Republicans enjoy some favorable political news ahead of the 2024 brawl, the party is also straddled with its own weaknesses. The GOP was widely expected to surf the red wave in the 2022 midterm elections, but instead, Republicans barely clinched the House and lost ground in the Senate.
Many analysts have pinned the blame for the party’s midterm drubbing on poor candidate quality and abortion — two factors that could vex them again in 2024. Moreover, Democratic vulnerabilities such as the economy and House investigations could also fail to properly materialize.