Russia suffers another loss in Ukraine
Jon Sweet Mark Toth
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his generals continue to write checks that mobilized reservists and conscripts cannot cash.
Over the weekend, Russian armored forces suffered a series of stinging defeats in Vuhledar and Andriivka, demonstrating a continued inability to maneuver and defend themselves. Instead, the Russian forces resorted to what they do best, abandoning equipment and running away.
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It is a bitter pill for nationalist military bloggers and propagandists to swallow back home.
Images show T-72 tanks and BMP armored infantry fighting vehicles destroyed or abandoned, as many as 30 altogether. Videos graphically depict dead Russian soldiers strewn throughout and surviving troops running from the impact area. It is combat, it is ugly, and it is not going as planned.
The threat of an even larger Russian spring offensive in the Donetsk Oblast still looms. At least in the short term, the Russian military can afford losses in personnel. What it cannot afford is this measure of losses in tanks and armored personnel carriers. Consequently, the technique of probing for weak spots in the Ukrainian defenses with armored formations will likely be replaced with mercenaries, infantrymen, and artillery. Once weaknesses are identified, they will be exploited with armor.
The Russian machine is once again proving slow and clumsy.
Now coupled with inexperience, it is vulnerable to counterattack. Putin’s army is one-dimensional. It excels in attacking static defensive positions with massed forces. But this strategy exposes formations, equipment, and supplies to artillery, drones, and maneuver. Ukrainian forces have easily out-maneuvered their Russian counterparts. When exposed and under attack, Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine tend to abandon positions and equipment and make a hasty retreat. We observed this in Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Kharkiv and Kherson in September, and now again in Vuhledar.
Timing, capability, and training matter.
Still, the U.S. hesitation to provide Ukraine with more advanced weapons is limiting opportunities for a counterattack at scale. Instead of pushing Russian troops out of Ukraine, Kyiv is reduced to repulsing attacks. In the wake of this weekend’s failed armored assaults on Vuhledar and Andriivka, a golden opportunity was likely missed. The opportunity to counterattack, then pursue Russian forces with relentless pressure back to behind their border. It could have instilled fear, provoked panic, and broken the will of an army whose heart is not in the fight. Instead, Russian forces will return to their defensive positions, only to be ordered to try again, with similar results.
In time, the weapons, ammunition, and supplies contributed by the U.S., NATO, and other European Union countries will ultimately contribute to Ukraine winning the war. In the meantime, the Ukrainian soldier goes back to his defensive position, cleans his weapon, and prepares for the next assault.
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Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
Mark Toth is a retired economist, historian, and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing, and global commerce. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.