What we can infer from the Alaska aerial object
Tom Rogan
The White House says that the U.S. military shot down an as yet unidentified flying object over northern Alaska on Thursday evening.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the object was “the size of a small car” and lacked an array of the kind carried by the Chinese spy balloon downed over the Atlantic last weekend. The object was at an altitude of 40,000 feet as it transited airspace over U.S. territorial waters near Prudhoe Bay. As with the balloon, the downing was performed by an F-22. The debris field is said to be small and located on solidly frozen ice. Beyond that, details are sparse.
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Still, we can make some tentative suppositions as to what might have been going on here.
First, the White House is clearly unsure as to what exactly was brought down. Kirby says that U.S. jets sent to intercept the object observed that it was unmanned. But he also said he didn’t know who was operating the object or for what purpose. Kirby also added that the object did not appear to have an active propulsion system.
This suggests it was some kind of balloon or glide apparatus. It’s worth noting, at least in passing, that some unidentified airborne objects lack conventional flight surfaces. Kirby’s vague descriptions are not suspicious, however. As he noted, the fighter crews sent to intercept the object were flying far faster than it. Considering the object’s small size, it’s understandable that the U.S. doesn’t yet know what it brought down.
That said, the area where the object was downed does have strategic value. This includes the large Prudhoe Bay oil field, the operators of which may use drones and balloons in their operations. But U.S. and Russian submarines operate in the nearby waters, with the former conducting icebreaking drills, ballistic missile exercises and combat training. Russian military aircraft also regularly fly near Alaskan airspace.
Advanced fiber optic cables also come ashore at Prudhoe Bay. That bears note in relation to escalating Russian efforts to monitor these cables for prospective interference or destruction. But whatever this object was, there are feasible intelligence collection targets it could have been pursuing.
It’s also important to note that NORAD is on high alert for intrusions following the balloon incident. This is partly due to the fact that the balloon and others like it were not detected early enough, or some at all. Air Force leaders know they have to show that they can provide a more meaningful assurance of national air defense.
At the same time, the White House has been stung by Republican political criticism that it waited too long to down the balloon. Both President Joe Biden and the Pentagon would have wanted to bring this object down quickly so as to mitigate any sense of hesitation or weakness in face of a possible threat. Top line: There is now an inherently political element to air defense versus a sole security component.
Expect more incidents such as this one.
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