Expected surge in vehicle theft crimes in 2023 as violent crime falls
Rachel Schilke
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Recent data show that while violent crimes in some major cities are on the decline, the rise of smaller, less deadly crimes is indicating that 2023 will be filled with some headaches for law enforcement.
A recent report from the Council on Criminal Justice shows that across 35 cities, homicides, gun assaults, and domestic violence declined slightly in 2022. However, motor vehicle theft and property crimes spiked. Now, those categories are already showing signs of a continued increase in 2023.
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On average, the murder rate declined by 4% between 2021 and 2022, but it was 34% higher than what was recorded in 2019.
In that same time frame, on average, robberies increased by 5.5%, nonresidential burglaries rose 11%, and larcenies increased by 8%. All of these rates remained lower than they were in 2019.
Richard Rosenfeld, professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and lead author of the report, told the New York Times that the rise in motor vehicle thefts was the most widespread trend across the cities tracked.
Auto theft increased 59% overall from 2019 to 2022 and 21% from 2021 to 2022. The only city to record a decrease from 2019 to 2022 was Baltimore.
Analysts noted that the rise in motor vehicle crime began in early 2020, the start of the pandemic. Cities including Chicago, Denver, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Memphis, and St. Louis all saw a stark increase in vehicle theft.
In Washington, D.C., motor vehicle theft is rising dramatically in 2023 compared to the auto theft numbers around this time in 2022. By Feb. 3, 2022, there were 329 motor vehicle thefts. As of Feb. 3, 2023, there have been 611 — an 86% increase.
Homicides in D.C. are up 20%. Assault with a dangerous weapon is down 2% and violent crime is down 15%.
Chicago has recorded 38 homicides, one less when compared with 2022, per the Chicago Tribune. In 2022, vehicle thefts were up 96%, with over 18,000 vehicles stolen compared to around 9,000 in 2021. In 2023, data show over 2,400 motor vehicle thefts recorded — that number can encompass attempts and recoveries.
Data on crime trends can be complicated due to a lack of agencies reporting. The FBI shares national statistics on crime, but the 18,600 law enforcement agencies have been slow to adopt the voluntary National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), leaving several manners of crimes unaccounted for.
“There’s a real void to be filled, and we’ve tried to do it,” Rosenfeld said. “But there’s no reason why private entities should be doing the job of our federal statistical agencies.”
Approximately 33% of law enforcement agencies are not feeding their crime data into the national database, per Axios. That means several recent crimes, including the California shootings in Monterey Park and Half Moon Bay, may not make it into the national crime statistics.
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The interplay of different kinds of crime can affect statistics as well. James Lint, a lieutenant with the San Antonio police, told the New York Times that the rise in auto theft could lead to a domino effect for other crime areas — including burglary or violent crime.
“Your stolen vehicle is actually a gateway to other crimes such as assaults, robberies, burglaries, and homicides,” Lt. Lint said. “Oftentimes they need a stolen vehicle because they’re not going to use their own.”