Will two be a crowd?
David Mark
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Nikki Haley‘s pending entrance into the 2024 Republican presidential scrum both helps and hurts the one candidate already in the race, former President Donald Trump. Haley’s candidacy gives GOP primary voters a plausible alternative but also provides Trump a foil to run against.
Haley, South Carolina governor from 2011-17, is set to announce her presidential bid for 2024 on Feb. 15 at the Shed at the Charleston Visitor Center in her home state. Haley, 51, had until recently seemed an iffy prospect for 2024 since she’d worked in the Trump administration for two years and has been careful not to antagonize the former president.
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Haley has been relatively quiet since leaving the Trump administration midterm. She was a rare Trump administration official to depart on relatively good terms, along with former head of the Small Business Administration Linda McMahon and White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders (now governor of Arkansas). More commonly, Trump has derided past officials from his 2017-21 administration, like his second chief of staff, retired Gen. John Kelly; former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; and Elaine Chao, transportation secretary for most of his term until she quit over his conduct on Jan. 6.
Haley on the campaign trail is likely to lean into her six years as South Carolina governor. The former state lawmaker was a 2010 tea party wave favorite.
“During Governor Haley’s tenure, South Carolina was a national leader in economic development. Known as the ‘Beast of the Southeast,’ the state’s unemployment rate hit a 15-year low, it saw over $20 billion in new capital investment, and her administration announced new jobs in every county in the state,” says her website, previewing a likely 2024 presidential primary campaign message.
For Trump, any new entrant into the race means potentially less focus on him. Haley, an Indian American, also would be the first Republican female presidential nominee.
But as the only other Republican in the race so far, Trump can focus his rhetorical fire on Haley. That’s not something he’ll be shy about doing if his 2016 and 2020 campaigns are any indication.
Trump is trying to become the second president with nonconsecutive White House terms after the late Grover Cleveland in 1885-89 and 1893-97.
It took Trump a while to get his 2024 presidential bid off the ground after declaring his candidacy on Nov. 15. He did visit South Carolina on Jan. 28, along with New Hampshire.
Sununu Question Mark in New Hampshire
A Haley presidential bid rests on the assumption that she would clean up in her home state of South Carolina, a traditionally early GOP contest that’s made and broken earlier decades of presidential campaigns.
It’s a similar scenario in New Hampshire, and perhaps even more pronounced, as GOP Gov. Chris Sununu ponders a 2024 run in the first-in-the-nation Republican primary state. First elected governor in 2016, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology-educated civil and environmental engineer is a scion of sorts in New Hampshire politics. His father, John H. Sununu, was governor from 1983-89 and then White House chief of staff for President George H.W. Bush. An older brother, John E. Sununu, was a Republican House member for six years, followed by a single 2003-09 Senate term.
The New Hampshire governor would bring a more libertarian ethos to the presidential race than the bulk of the prospective 2024 field. He favors abortion rights, with some restrictions, and has distanced himself from Trump.
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Chris Sununu in 2022 won his gubernatorial reelection bid by 15 points, naturally setting up questions about a White House run. He has indicated he’s taking a look at it.
But anything short of a first-place New Hampshire primary finish a year from now, and by a wide margin, would raise questions about his broader appeal to the Republican presidential electorate. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the governor skip the Granite State contest altogether in a purported display of strength in larger early primary states.
Declared Republican Candidate
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley
Former President Donald Trump
Possible Republican Presidential Candidates
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
Former Rep. Liz Cheney (WY)
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Sen. Ted Cruz (TX)
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
Radio talk show host and 2021 California gubernatorial recall candidate Larry Elder
Sen. Josh Hawley (MO)
Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan
Former Rep. Will Hurd (TX)
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem
Former Vice President Mike Pence
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Sen. Tim Scott (SC)
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin